Interpretation Of The New Round Of Dividend Reform

At the beginning of the year, what we remember is not that life deceives us, but that our heart always faces the future, but now it is often melancholy.

It never seems to be so pressing for the arrival of the new year, even at the beginning of the century, because there are too many expectations waiting for us to verify in 2015.

China's economic growth will not rise steadily, will the 7% be the upper limit or the bottom line? Monetary policy is still insisting on turning left lights to the right or changing all the time. Whether China's stock market is a bull market across the year or a flash in the pan, the answers can only be found in 2015. They are mutually causal and mutually pformed. Resignation is a result.

If China's macro regulation has ended its historical mission in 2013, the positive intervention in 2014 has seen a new turn for us after all, after all.

It is also necessary to take the initiative to mobilize the whole body or to invest in a child to ensure that it is not only a life attitude at all times.

China's economy has no answer. The world economy is much more suspenseous. "Black Swans" are dancing all over the world, and there are many words about the world. The most shocking thing is that China has become the pronoun of the world economy in the context of those prophets. If not, let us look at the "fabricated" from GE long.

Black Swan No. 1 looks most unlikely to happen, but it is disastrous to happen. China's GDP growth rate has dropped to 2%.

Black Swan two: impossible mission? Euro zone economic downturn.

Black Swan three: German bond yields rose against the market and Europe was pushed back to the mire.

Black Swan four: sunset in the Empire's dusk? Great political turmoil in Britain.

Black Swan five: black to the bottom! Dollar depreciation!

Black Swan six: the food crisis that nobody cares about.

Black Swan seven: RMB depreciated by 5% in 2015.

Black Swan eight: first half of the Fed

And even raise interest rates in the first quarter.

Will China's economy fall to 2%? If so, then Barclays's Li Keqiang economics in 2013 will be on the right track. In Barclays's prediction, China's GDP decline will be 3%, but this is indeed an unlikely event. Similarly, the possibility of 5% depreciation of the RMB will exist, but it will become a contradiction with the depreciation of the US dollar. Moreover, the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB is relative. In 2014, the RMB is depreciated relative to the US dollar, but it appreciates relative to other currencies, such as the euro and so on. Therefore, black swan two and three are also a pair of contradictions, and the probability of occurrence is zero, and the probability of a single occurrence will not exceed 40%.

Black swans No. five and No. eight are also contradictory to the US dollar. At the same time, there may be zero, which may be more than 50%. In particular, the Fed's interest rate increase is basically a definite event. The difference is only the difference between the first half and the second half of the month. In fact, it is not a black swan but a big white goose.

Before 2014, the biggest driving force of China's economic growth came from investment, especially real estate investment. Real estate was the pillar industry of China's economy in the past ten years. Now the real estate industry has entered a period of adjustment. The golden age has ended. Before 2014, the Chinese government was most worried about CPI.

A pig can make China's economic policy in a mess. But now the situation is different. Crude oil futures prices are cut down, grain prices are cut down. PPI is declining year by year. Deflation has become the magic curse on the head of the government. Is this hedging? If so, how should we grasp it?

In the book of Shuangcheng, Dickens said that this is the worst and the best era.

We are all looking forward to a new round of reform dividends. We do not know that any reform is the choice of death. What is there to be gloomy about it? Everything is instantaneous, everything will pass away, and the past will become a pleasant memory.