The State Will Abandon Its Reserves To Slow Down Cotton Prices.

Cotton prices continued to rise, in June 25th, 600 thousand tons of cotton throwing and storage has been approved by the relevant state departments, and can start at any time.

It is still unknown whether the dumping plan of 600 thousand tons of national cotton reserves can play a role in stabilizing market prices.

A futures industry analyst said that the uncertainty of throwing time may be related to the difficulty of timing.

"If the time is too early, in the current tight supply situation, it may play a role in pushing up the price of cotton.

It's too late for cotton prices. "

The source said.

Crazy rise

"Cotton prices almost hit a new high since the price of cotton was liberalized in 1999."

In June 25th, the China Cotton Association Industry Department official told our reporter.

Since November 2008, cotton prices have risen all the way.

According to our reporter, cotton spot price is currently 18000 yuan / ton.

In Xinjiang, some varieties reached 19000 yuan / ton.

In the futures market, as of the reporter's draft in the morning of June 25th, the 1007 price of the contract has reached 18595 yuan per ton.

And the main contract 1101 also climbed 16000 yuan / ton.

"Although the price of the long-term main contract is 16000 yuan / ton, it is also the new high cost of acquisition.

Next year's 1109 contract will reach at least 1009 of the contract this year. "

Dong Shuangwei, an analyst with [17.20-0.17%], a leading agricultural product, told reporters.

Dong Shuangwei said, such a spot price level is close to the highest price of cotton between 2003 and 2004.

China Cotton Association stakeholders analyzed the main reasons for the rising cotton prices.

First, the improvement in exports of textiles and clothing has led to a strong demand for cotton.

Next is the new year cotton production situation is not optimistic.

According to the China Cotton Association survey, the cotton planting area is basically stable compared with last year.

On the other hand, cotton production started badly. Some cotton producing areas suffered frequent disastrous weather. Cotton sowing was generally delayed for about half a month. The market expects that the contradiction between production and demand is still more prominent next year.

In addition, international organizations predict that the end inventory of cotton will decline, which will lead to the rising cotton prices in the international spot market.

"At present, the increase in cotton prices is mainly a problem of insufficient supply."

Beijing intermediate futures agricultural products analyst Zhang Xiangjun told this reporter.

Facing crazy

Throw away the store

In June 25th, people of China Cotton Association told our reporter that the state has already prepared for throwing and storing, and the number of throwing and storing is 600 thousand tons.

But the exact date has not yet been announced.

According to our newspaper reporter from a number of industry sources, the time of dumping is likely to be around July 22nd.

But this has not been confirmed by the cotton association.

"For the time of dumping, the state is still not sure at the moment."

A futures trader told our reporter that at present, the country's cotton reserves are around 1 million 200 thousand tons.

"What will be the price of cotton next year after throwing 600 thousand tons of storage? At present, only 1 million 200 thousand tons will not play a big role in restraining market prices in essence, and the national dumping plan is more psychological on the market."

The source said.

Zhang Xiangjun also said that from the quantity of dumping, the market will not be very influential.

This reporter learned that this year the new cotton market will be around the end of September and the beginning of October.

According to Dong Shuangwei analysis, the state hopes that the price of new cotton will not be too high by means of dumping.

However, the uncertainty of dumping time seems to indicate some problems.

"If the store is too early, businesses rush to buy, which may push up the price of new cotton.

Late storage may not play a role in stabilizing cotton prices.

Dong Shuangwei said, "the choice of time is very important, which is why the state has not explicitly released the storage time."

In the short run, the impact on futures market may be greater than that in spot.

"Some of the profits are mostly in order to avoid policy risks and may be profitable in the short term."

Dong Shuangwei said.