Reserve Sale Of New Cotton Is Not Listed &Nbsp; Panic Buying Caused Cotton Prices Rose 20% In Half A Month

The cotton is crazy.

In Feng Mengxiao's view,

Feng Mengxiao, chief information officer of China cotton storage information center.

Feng Mengxiao shares the same view as Dong Shuangwei.

Dong Shuangwei, the first manager of futures research and development center, has been focusing on cotton futures research for many years.

Cotton prices have soared by more than 20% since mid September.

It has set the highest record since the price of cotton was released in 1999.

Over the same period, foreign cotton prices (Cotlook index) also rose sharply, from 94.1 cents / pound to 108.5 cents / pound, or 15%.

Behind the soaring price of cotton prices, a fact that can not be ignored is that the low yield of cotton farmers in recent years has led to a sharp decline in cotton planting area, resulting in a tight supply and demand from the roots.

Cotton Daniel twice a year

"Since 2009, cotton prices have risen rapidly at home and abroad."

Feng Mengxiao said, already exists.

In September 27th, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 21255 yuan / ton, while in January 5, 2009, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was only 10994 yuan / ton, up 10261 yuan / ton, or 93.33%.

Feng Mengxiao said that in the past 2005-2008 years, the annual price increase of cotton prices in China is generally less than 5%.

China's cotton price index was first released by the national cotton trading market in June 17, 2002. It is a comprehensive index reflecting domestic cotton prices.

The "China cotton price index" is based on the actual cotton price of the textile enterprises across the country and the spot price of cotton that is actually traded daily in the national cotton trading market.

At the same time, the province's spinning volume accounts for the proportion of national spinning and quotations.

China's cotton price index reflects the national average price level.

China's cotton price index was released once a week, and is now being released once a day.

"Those cotton companies that specialize in cotton purchasing are now very confused."

Feng Mengxiao said that he was very busy recently and was invited to explain cotton prices everywhere.

Dong Shuangwei, who was also very busy, said in his words, "the telephone is going to explode."

Dong Shuangwei said the rally began in the New York Futures Exchange (ICE).

In the middle of July, the US cotton futures began to exert its strength and constantly pushed up the cotton futures price of the Zhengzhou commodity exchange.

Founded in October 12, 1990, Zheng Shang is the first pilot unit of China's futures market and one of the four futures exchanges in the country. It is under the vertical management of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

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In 2004, cotton futures landed at Zhengshang office, making it the second world cotton futures exchange after ICE.

Futures prices rise, driving the price of electronic matching market and spot market.

"I'm crazy."

Dong Shuangwei said cotton futures traders have encountered a rare good situation, which is still more frenzied than the stock market.

In Feng Mengxiao's view, there are also cotton spinning enterprises who are "Crazy", but the downstream weaving and garment processing enterprises are facing enormous pressure brought by the rising cost, and the industry is facing a crisis.

Feng Mengxiao interpreted cotton Daniel market in 2009.

The year of cotton begins in September 1st and ends in August 31st next year.

The newly concluded cotton year is the 2009 cotton year (hereinafter referred to as the 2009 year). Firstly, cotton output in the 2009 year has dropped by about 15%, and the quality has also dropped significantly. The cotton output of grade three or above has dropped by 30% compared with that of the whole year.

Secondly, in 2008, affected by the financial crisis, some textile enterprises compressed their inventory.

Then we need to add a stock outside the normal trading stock, which is called the re stock effect.

The re stock effect is reflected in 2009. Because of the decline of cotton production and the decline of cotton quality caused by disasters, and the re inventory effect, the cotton price in 2009 has been very strong, from 13000 to nearly 20000 yuan.

However, the cotton price that just started 2010 is more fierce.

New cotton sold in reserve cotton is not listed.

"When the price breaks through a ton of 20 thousand, the market can not find its way."

Dong Shuangwei said that many funds had already made profits, while the spot market prices basically stabilized, but the price rise of the throwing and storage prices further stimulated the cotton price.

Since August 10th, the central storage cotton plant has started to implement 600 thousand tons of dumping and storage plan.

Dumping is to sell the state reserve cotton to the market to balance market demand.

The sale of cotton was sold by bidding mechanism, and the price of throwing and storing cotton rose against the market, which rose by more than 1000 yuan in just a month.

"Throwing cotton reserves prices led."

Dong Shuangwei said that the 25 day cotton reserve price increased by 1747 yuan per ton compared with the Mid Autumn Festival.

"From 2008 to 2009, the storage and storage price of China cotton reserves was 13000-14000 yuan / ton.

China cotton reserves are the biggest winners.

Dong Shuangwei said.

As of September 26th, China's cotton reserve management company has put 561 thousand and 195 tons into operation, with a turnover of 551 thousand and 596 tons, with a turnover rate of 99.3%.

On the 26 day, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association issued an urgent notice on increasing 400 thousand tons of national cotton storage. It said that in order to ensure the demand for textile production, the 400 thousand tons of state cotton should continue to be sold through auction in the early 600 thousand tons.

In 2008, the storage and storage of cotton in China were 2 million 720 thousand tons, 2009 tons in 1 million 330 thousand tons, and 1 million 390 thousand tons in balance.

After 1 million tons of dumping in 2010, the state reserves were less than 400 thousand tons.

"It's really scary."

Dong Shuangwei said.

Due to the impact of the climate, the harvest of cotton was delayed by about 15 days this year.

The largest domestic cotton market is also available in mid October.

The US cotton harvest just arrived at the end of November, and the India cotton export registration date has been postponed repeatedly. It may be postponed to October 15th.

"The cotton is also sold out, and the new cotton is not on the market. In the end, it may aggravate panic buying in the market."

Dong Shuangwei said.

On the 28 day, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of agriculture, the General Administration of industry and commerce, the General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine, the supply and Marketing Corporation and the seven branches of the Agricultural Development Bank jointly held the national teleconference on cotton work. It is estimated that the output of cotton will be slightly reduced in 2010.

There is no concrete plan for regulating cotton prices.

"The state's ability to regulate and control the cotton market is becoming weaker and weaker."

Dong Shuangwei said.

US Department of agriculture 10 released data that the end of the United States stock of 588 thousand tons of cotton, the end of the world inventory is also only 10 million 360 thousand tons, becoming the lowest in 15 years.

The news deepened the fear of the market again.