September Foreign Trade Mixed, Export "Inflection Point" Is Expected To Surge

"Two high and one low" roughly outlined China in September. foreign trade Trend.

The data released by the General Administration of Customs on 13 may show that China's import and export value was US $273 billion 100 million in the same month, an increase of 24.7% over the same period last year, setting a record of 262 billion 290 million US dollars in July and a record high. Of which, exports amounted to 144 billion 990 million US dollars, up 25.1% over the same period, and imports of US $128 billion 110 million, up 24.1% over the same period last year.

Imports grew by 7.4%, a record high. But the trade surplus of that month was $16 billion 880 million, a decrease of 15.7% from the previous month, the lowest point since May. Is the export turning to "inflection point"?

The three quarter foreign trade data released yesterday showed that Exit And imports achieved a growth rate of 34% and 42.4% respectively.

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said China's current overall situation foreign trade The situation is not bad. But it also gradually confirms the "turning point" concerns: if there is no other good news, then from the end of the three quarter to the first quarter of next year, exports will show a marked slowdown.

Citigroup's latest report points out that mainland exports will further slow down if global economic growth slows down and the appreciation pressure of the renminbi is on the rise.

The report points out that the continued monetary easing policies of some developed economies show that their recovery lacks the ability to provide enough jobs and limit the growth of global demand. Therefore, China's export growth will probably be adjusted to 10% to 15% by the end of this year.

The bank's financial research center's report predicts that due to the continuation of the weak recovery of the world economy in the future, the currency competitive devaluation of various countries is coming to an early stage, and the growth rate of import and export is expected to stabilize.

The worry about "turning point" represents only one side of the view.

"The decline in export growth in September was related to last year's base. From the point of view of export volume, exports from January to September continued to grow steadily in May and the second month in September. There is no turning point in China's exports. Li Jian, a researcher at the international trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with Xinhua.

Tang Min, Deputy Secretary General of the China Development Research Foundation, said that the world economy is declining and the world's demand for Chinese products is decreasing, which is an important factor leading to the decline in exports in September.

But in September, the export growth rate of 25.1% itself was a very good growth rate during the economic crisis.

"The current trend of foreign trade is obviously better than that before the financial crisis." Li Jian said.

In any case, currency war worries that this is a topic that can not be carried away.

Some countries have recently been competing to lower their exchange rates. Zhang Yansheng said the move is to pressure China to pay for the global economic adjustment, forcing the regulators to think more about the measures.

Up to now, Japan, Korea and Brazil and other major emerging market economies have adopted unilateral foreign exchange market intervention measures to limit the rapid appreciation pressure of local currencies. {page_break}

Zhang Yansheng pointed out to reporters that the core of the current problem is that all countries around the world understand that if they let their currencies rise in value, who will bear the cost of global recovery and economic adjustment. The United States and Europe are the hardest hit areas of the economic crisis. The euro debt crisis in the first half of this year has allowed the euro to continue to depreciate against the US dollar, which promoted the strong export strength of the European Union at that time.

"In fact, they know the most clearly in their minds, and in economics, it is unreasonable for Chinese people to pay their bills." Zhang Yansheng said.

"China's export growth will decline in the coming months and next year, but as long as the developed countries' economy is not" the two bottom finding "and there is still a certain demand, the scale of China's exports will still maintain steady growth. Li Jian said.