Review And Forecast Of Viscose Staple Market In November

1. Review of viscose Market

This month viscose staple fiber also rose and fell along with cotton. rapidly The roller coaster market. At the beginning of the month, the cotton prices were soaring, and the prices of the upstream raw materials increased continuously. At the same time, the closure of various manufacturers restricted the shipment of the market. Viscose staple fibers had gone up crazily. At that time, the viscose short line market quotation was chaotic, and the price was frequently traded. The low end quotation also opened up the gap in the viscose market. By the end of November 11th, the mainstream quotation of 1.5D viscose staple market increased by 7000 yuan to 31000 yuan, and the mainstream quotation of 1.2D market also rose to 31200 yuan / ton. And because of tight supply, high price viscose also continues to lead the market. The highest price in the 1.5D market has reached 32000 yuan / ton on that day, and 1.2D has risen to 32200 yuan / ton. At that time, viscose staple fiber rose like a prairie fire, spread rapidly to all viscose enterprises, downstream market panic and breeding, the intention to quickly increase. In addition, due to the lack of raw materials and energy saving and emission reduction factors, many of the viscose enterprises start up rate is not up or down, only to maintain near 80%.

However, after the policy of national cotton regulation, cotton prices several degrees Diving, 11 and 12 days of two consecutive down limits also brought a hint of haze to the viscose staple market. The price of viscose manufacturers quickly dropped to 1.5D, 31000 yuan, 1.2D quoted price 31200 yuan / ton, the market shipments were light, 30000 yuan or more transactions were scarce. At present, the thought of viscose middlemen is serious. The 29000 yuan / ton 1.5D viscose staple fiber can be seen everywhere. Low price shipments also bring some possibility to the viscose staple fiber's weakness. Because of the serious market bearish mentality and the failure of the cotton market, the viscose staple fiber continued to weaken, and the viscose stock in the mill was more than a month. The market in the second half of this month was deserted, although the quotation remained firm, but there were already concessions in the actual transaction. In addition, under the guidance of bearish thinking, traders of viscose enterprises are eager to ship, and the cost of signing orders is not high. They have started a price war, and the price of 28000 yuan / ton can be seen everywhere. The failure of cotton and the emergence of cheap viscose have disintegrated the market. emotion Wait-and-see continues to increase, and some enterprises have no new orders for many days. In addition, near the end of the month, the manufacturers' pre orders have been completed, and the inventory situation is also increasing. By the end of November 30th, many enterprises' stock is about 7-8 days, and there are more than 15 days.

Two, upstream raw material market performance

This month's market quotation for cotton lint also follows the roller coaster of cotton. At the beginning of the month, the price of short staple cotton lint rose from 13500 yuan / ton to 15000 yuan / ton, and the price of long staple cotton lint rose to 16000 yuan / ton. With the failure of cotton, cotton lint also follows "disaster", and market acquisition decreases. As time goes on, pulp enterprises begin to stop collecting short staple, and even appear the phenomenon of price reduction and no acquisition. By the end of the month, the market price of filament pulp with cotton lint fell by 14000 yuan / ton, and the market price of short silk pulp with cotton lint fell to 13000 yuan / ton, while the low price cotton lint was also reported to 8000-12000 yuan / ton, and the quality difference was uneven. Traders generally lack confidence in future generations, and shipments are increasing. Short supply of cotton lint is in excess of demand.

The market price of cotton pulp this month is relatively maintained. From the beginning of the month to the end of the month, cotton pulp has gone through the "ice and fire" situation. At present, the market quotation remains at the level of 22000-22500 yuan / ton, but the downstream market is not in a hurry to demand goods, and wait-and-see sentiment has also spread to cotton pulp. In addition, the market price of dissolving pulp remained at $2400 / ton this month. The market order for wood pulp meal is still in progress. However, customers hope to make a turnover of 2200 dollars, and the order of pulp pulp to port in March will be temporarily suspended.

Three, the downstream cotton yarn market performance this month cotton yarn quotes also showed a "reverse V" trend, as of the end of the month, the market turnover was relatively low, the average daily turnover decreased significantly. In order to tighten up the shipment and free up the stock, people's cotton yarn enterprises have been selling their prices in a bid. Among them, the Shandong Dai Yin 10S cotton spinning knitted yarn belt ticket is sent to Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces for the price of 33000 yuan / ton, and the 30S rayon spinning yarn is quoted at 34000 yuan / ton, and the price of the 60S cotton spinning machine yarn is 48500 yuan / ton. Jilin chemical fiber 30S ring spun rayon knitted ribbon ticket is priced at 35500 yuan / ton, and 30S ring spun rayon knitted ribbon ticket is priced at 38000 yuan / ton. In terms of cost, viscose staple fiber costs 28000 yuan / ton, plus 2% wastage and processing cost of 4500 yuan. The cost of 30S cotton knitted yarn is 33000 yuan / ton. In addition, knitting yarn is generally about 1000 yuan higher than that of woven yarn, and the profit margins of the current cotton mill are not high enough, basically flat. The viscose staple fiber currently used by some manufacturers is still at a high level of 30000 yuan / ton in the early stage, while the cost of 30S cotton knitted yarn is 35000 yuan, and some low price manufacturers still have the possibility of losing money.

Four, the outlook for the future market, at present, viscose staple fiber under the constraints of cost has not yet launched a substantial price reduction action, but the downstream market profit is not high, coupled with the retaliatory decline also let viscose staple fiber shipments add haze, coupled with the off-season market factors and market bearish sentiment has seriously dampened the confidence of short fiber enterprises, is expected to end in December or fell to 25000 yuan.