BOABC Monitoring And Explanation Of Supply And Demand Balance In China'S Cotton Market
November
BOABC
It is estimated that the harvest area in 2010 is 5 million 400 thousand hectares.
Small yield per unit area
The reduction was 1.35 tons / ha, the same level as the previous year, with a total output of 7 million 315 thousand tons, and consumption expected to be 11 million 100 thousand tons, down 100 thousand tons from the previous period, and imports remained unchanged.
Price: excessive price in the near future
Rise
The annual average price of cotton in the future will increase by about 50% compared with the previous year. The average price of 2010/11 is estimated to be around 22941 yuan / ton, and the current high price has great risks.
Cotton production in 2011 was affected by the increase in cotton prices for two consecutive years. The cotton growers' income has improved. The sowing area of cotton in 2011/12 has rebounded to 5 million 832 thousand hectares, but it is still below the highest level in 2007/08. The output per unit is kept ahead of schedule, the domestic output reaches 8 million tons, the consumption has rebounded, the domestic cotton production and demand gap has maintained a high level, and the import of cotton will exceed the historical level of 4 million 200 thousand tons.
Due to the obvious cotton gap, cotton prices will continue to rise slightly, the price increase has declined, and is expected to rise by about 5%, and the annual price is more than 20000 yuan / ton.
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