Expert Analysis: There Is No Need To Be Too Pessimistic About The Textile Market.

Since November 11th, the State Administration Regulation The sharp sharp callback of textile raw materials led by cotton prices has reduced the scorching market to zero in the second half of the year. Panic, market pessimism, and uncertainty about economic policies next year, and so on, and so on, information intensive to the market, to this not too cold winter artificially adds a lot of chill.

After careful consideration, the author is somewhat puzzled that the present situation does not need to be so alarmed.

1. In the post crisis era, textile The good momentum of the strong recovery of garment exports did not turn out to be a big change and change. In 2010 1-10, textile and garment exports were US $167 billion 600 million. An increase of 23% over the previous 07 years (before the financial crisis) of US $171 billion 200 million, with an expected growth of around 11%. Although the growth rate has slowed down, the trend has not changed fundamentally.

2, steady growth in domestic demand for textiles and clothing. In the past 03 years, the proportion of domestic textile sales has increased year by year. It rose from 66% in 02 to 09 in 79%. It is expected to stabilize at around 80% in 2010. Especially in the long run, with the continuous growth of national income level, the potential of clothing consumption demand will be further released. Domestic clothing consumption increased by 12.59% in 09 years, and 14% in 2010. Domestic demand growth is expected to reach about 15% in 12th Five-Year.

3. Main terminals of chemical fiber products consumption It's still in the country. In 2010 (1-10 months), direct exports of MMF (man-made fibres) accounted for 5%, textile exports accounted for 17% of chemical fibers, and clothing exports accounted for 14% of chemical fibers. The three items add up to nearly 10 million tons, the total chemical fiber exports account for 36% of the total domestic fiber, while the cotton based natural fibers, though over 60% of the total export, still have a large gap. Therefore, even if the export is slowing down, the impact on the entire chemical fiber Market is limited.

4, at present, all kinds of fibers, such as cotton, viscose and polyester, are still at a very low level. At present, all the commercial, social and state reserves of cotton stocks are only about 2 million 800 thousand tons, which is at a low level in 95 years. And viscose filament less than ten thousand tons of inventory is also a new low in 15 years. Viscose staple fiber is currently only 10 days inventory, polyester is also a rare year of good year, low inventory sales.

5, cotton price rigid support, all chemical fiber related products price stability has a foundation. As we all know, 10/11 domestic cotton more than 1 million tons of rigid gap is a foregone conclusion. (10 million 500 thousand tons of consumption -636 million tons, -270 million tons import volume -50 million tons of inventory decline). In the face of the rising cost of agricultural materials, the long-term price stability has led to the low enthusiasm of cotton growers and the widespread psychological of selling. This year cotton farmers' cost estimates of seed cotton need to maintain at least 5.5 yuan / Jin, and the cotton rigid cost is estimated to be around 27000 yuan / ton. At present, the value of cotton has entered the long 2 prefix era. For all fibers, especially chemical fibers, it is of great significance to ensure the stability of the current price level.

6, the positive side of the national macro policy has not changed substantially. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in December 3rd pointed out that the overall economic policy should be adjusted in the following year: we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Among them, from "consolidating and expanding the response to the impact of the international crisis and maintaining steady and rapid economic development", the exchange rate, tax rebate and monetary policy will not change significantly next year. At present, the international and domestic abundant liquidity monetary phenomenon still has a structural impact on the market. Although the expected rate of interest raising is high, interest rate increases will further aggravate the entry of international hot money. In the current high unemployment rate in Europe and the United States, the rate of interest increase before the middle of next year is likely to be very low. China's lead in raising interest rates is very unwise. The biggest possibility is to steadily raise the reserves. According to the annual financial credit habit of China, the credit ratio of the 1-2 quarter accounts for 7 of the total year, so there will not be obvious deflation in the first half of next year.

7, at the present low season of traditional textiles, the decline in production and marketing is normal. 12-2 every year is the traditional low season for textiles. On the one hand, the list is basically finished, and the list is not yet up. At present, it is the proofing and raw material storage period of spring and summer, and the whole industry is facing the problem of capital contraction and start-up decline at the end of the year.

To sum up, there are several suggestions:

1, in the off-season, we should have a low mindset, and look at the normal decline in production and marketing.

2, do not panic blindly, take unfair competition actions such as price reduction and selling, and be vigilant against the malicious suppression of speculators.

3, it is the best policy to increase product inventory appropriately, reduce startup and stabilize the market. The measures such as "Valley surplus peak sale" can achieve higher efficiency.

4, in the face of market correction, choose the right machine to do the next season's raw material reserve work, waiting for the spring season.