Opening Of The Central Economic Work Conference; &Nbsp; Emphasis On Curbing Inflation Pressure

On December 10, Beijing was clear.

Jingxi Hotel on West Chang'an Street, the annual Central Economic Work Conference Start.

The meeting is expected to last for three days. All leaders of the central government, main heads of provinces and cities, heads of ministries and commissions, and leaders of some state-owned enterprises attended the meeting.

Different from the past few years, the conference summarized the work of the 11th Five Year Plan, especially the work of last year, and deployed the work of the 12th Five Year Plan, especially the work of 2011, the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan.

A participant pointed out that the conference summarized the Eleventh Five Year Plan and said that China had done some important things, especially some prudent and difficult things, in the past five years, which laid a good foundation for the next step to a new level. During the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the economy is expected to be in a rising period, but China's next development will encounter various risks and challenges at home and abroad.

For this reason, the main line during the "12th Five Year Plan" period is to accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode, promote long-term and stable economic development, and maintain social harmony and stability on this basis.

It is reported that the national "12th Five Year Plan" has been initially formulated. We are conducting large-scale research on the "12th Five Year Plan" and soliciting opinions from all sectors to more comprehensively reflect the development of various industries and the needs of enterprises and people's livelihood.

The regulation work in the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan is connected with the main line of the whole 12th Five Year Plan. According to a macroeconomic expert, the main content is "how to deal with the relationship between maintaining steady and rapid economic growth, adjusting the structure and curbing inflationary pressure". Among them, the expression of restraining inflation pressure is different from that of "managing inflation expectations" in 2010.

However, some industry concerns that the economy and external demand may decline significantly in 2011 may not occur. Bai Lichen, Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, pointed out at the 2010 China International Chamber of Commerce held on December 10 that 2011 was the first year of the "12th Five Year Plan", the external development environment was generally better than last year, and domestic investment and consumption were expected to achieve rapid growth. It was expected that after the first quarter, economic growth would stabilize and recover, reaching about 9% for the whole year.

"While maintaining a relatively stable macroeconomic policy, we should actively promote reform in relevant fields, accelerate economic restructuring and transformation of the development mode, and lay a good foundation for medium - and long-term economic development," he said.

　　 Restraining inflation or introducing prudent control policies

According to the analysis of experts who participated in the relevant policy report, one of the main contents of the central control next year is different from this year, that is, last year was "managed inflation expectations". At present, the price increase has exceeded the control line of 3%, and even may reach 5% in a single month. Therefore, it is not appropriate to still implement "managed inflation expectations". In view of this, the term of price control in 2011 was changed to“ Restrain inflationary pressure ”, which can be a good expression.

In this way, the statement of next year's regulation may be "how to handle the relationship between maintaining steady and rapid economic growth, adjusting structural adjustment and curbing inflationary pressure". This is different from the 2010 "to handle the relationship between maintaining steady and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations" proposed by the Central Economic Conference of China in December 2009.

Some scholars believe that next year's economic growth is expected to decrease, but the price increase will increase, and maintaining a good matching relationship between prices and economic indicators is necessary.

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the price and industrial figures of November on December 11. It is generally expected that the price increase in this month will be higher than the year-on-year growth rate of 4.4% last month. However, the industry will still maintain rapid growth.

Some institutions believe that China's price increase may reach 3.3% this year. The Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to implement a prudent monetary policy on December 3, which is a change from last year's "moderately loose monetary policy".

Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University and member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, believes that this year China's economic growth will be around 10.3% - 10.5%, and consumer price inflation (CPI) will exceed 3%. Next year's economic growth will be between 9.5% and 10%, and inflation will also be above 3%, but not more than 5%. Therefore, the economy will still grow rapidly next year, so there is no need to worry too much.

But prices are likely to be "high at the beginning and low at the end" next year. "The first half of the year was tight, the prices in the first half were very scary, and the second half of the year was slow down," Li Daokui predicted.

In view of this change, the monetary policy implemented by the central bank may appear somewhat tight. "(Steady monetary policy) As long as there is no major accident, this policy may persist for a long time, and even turn to prudent monetary policy. In terms of direction, it will be appropriately tightened bit by bit." Li Daokui sounded the alarm to bankers and insurers at the "China Economic Quarterly Talks" report meeting on December 10.

According to his analysis, from next year, the global economy will enter the post financial crisis era, because the global economy, especially the economy of developed countries, is expected to recover, and the U.S. economy may grow by 3%, or even 3.5%. However, the pressure of global inflation will increase in the coming years. At the same time, China also faces the above problems.

At present, China's rising prices are mainly caused by production costs in individual fields, especially labor costs, and international inflation input factors. However, given that most of China's agricultural products are still in good supply, prices can be kept at a stable level. However, China's monetary stock has exceeded 10 trillion US dollars, ranking first in the world. If the currency issue is expanded again, it will not cause inflation pressure, but financial risks.

Because of this, it will be a tendency and transformation of macro policy to continue to rapidly increase the reserve ratio, issue more central bank bills, or give various very tough loan guidance to commercial banks, rather than rapidly increase the interest rate.

"My personal understanding is that such a transformation, from an appropriate loose policy to a prudent policy, is a more prudent, more prudent, gradual, step by step, and in the official language, it is a flexible, targeted, pragmatic and effective policy transformation, which will not suddenly change overnight." Li Daokui said. {page_break}

　　 Domestic and foreign demand, three major economic structures will be adjusted

Some experts also believe that during the 12th Five Year Plan period Economic restructuring It will be accelerated, because the current price rise is related to the unreasonable industrial structure.

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that at present, the price of agricultural products in China is rising relatively fast, which is related to the weak agricultural foundation. For this reason, during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, from the perspective of output, we need to do a good job in three major economic structural adjustments to make up for the shortcomings of agriculture, while for industry, we need to strengthen from a big perspective. As for the tertiary industry, it needs to further promote growth.

"The proportion of our tertiary industry in the economy is estimated to be just over 40% this year, which is nearly 40 percentage points lower than that of the United States, 80% of the United States, and 20 percentage points lower than the global average." Yao Jingyuan repeatedly stressed at the recent 8th Annual Conference on Enterprise Competitiveness and at subsequent meetings.

He pointed out that the current low proportion of the tertiary industry makes it difficult for college students to find jobs. There are 6 million graduates every year, which is directly related to the low proportion of modern service industry.

At the 2010 China International Chamber of Commerce on December 10, he continued to propose that the three structural relationships of demand should also be adjusted. The "12th Five Year Plan" has proposed to "form a new situation of consumption, investment, export and coordinated economic growth". That is, consumption has been put in the first place, which is different from the previous demand ranking of "investment, consumption and export".

Wan Jifei, President of the China International Chamber of Commerce and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, also believes that during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the connotation of external demand needs to change in order to achieve global resource allocation, complement each other's advantages, truly balance internal and external interests, and achieve mutual benefit.

At the end of the "12th Five Year Plan", in 2015, we will achieve an export of $4 trillion, not only to improve the quantity, but also to ensure the quality. For example, the focus of the next step of export will gradually shift to high-tech products, to agricultural deep processing and precision processing products, to energy conservation and environmental protection products, to large-scale complete sets of equipment, service outsourcing and other fields. ”Wan said.

At the same time, the relationship between internal and external demand reflected by imports and exports is also changing. "We must make a good overall plan for import and export while exporting, so we should pay more attention to import issues, optimize the quality of imports, increase the import of advanced technology, key equipment, as well as important energy and raw materials." Wan continued.

His statement was approved by Li Daokui, member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank, and Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities (microblog).

Data shows that in November 2010, China's import and export value was 283.76 billion US dollars, up 36.2% year on year and 15.9% month on month. The trade surplus was US $22.9 billion.

Li Daokui estimated that, considering that the trade surplus continues to decline, China's trade surplus is expected to account for 3% of the economic growth this year, which is quite different from the situation of 7% - 8% in previous years. The proportion is expected to remain at 3% next year.

If this continues, it is expected that the pressure of the US Congress on the appreciation of the RMB will decrease. "I think China's structural adjustment, especially reflected in the decline of its trade surplus as a proportion of GDP, has made rapid progress. ”Li Daokui gave a confident conclusion.

　　 The 12th Five Year Plan is still a period of great development of housing construction

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the country strengthened structural adjustment during the "12th Five Year Plan" to promote the increase of consumption rate, which is related to the starting point and goal of the "12th Five Year Plan" to improve social security and further improve people's livelihood.

Because the most fundamental way to make consumption play a more important role is to make everyone rich. At the same time, the problem of daring to spend money should be solved.

"What should we do? We should strengthen and improve social security," he said.

At the previous meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on December 3, it was proposed that doing a good job in economic and social development next year is of great significance for the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" to make a good start, make good progress and welcome the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Party.

The reporter learned that the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" has put forward many hard targets. For example, in the next five years, the investment in education will reach 4% of GDP, while the investment in medicine and health, environmental protection, housing security, etc. will also accelerate.

Qin Hong, deputy director of the Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, said that the "12th Five Year Plan" period should still be a period of great development of housing construction. The reason is that China's current ratio of households to housing units is less than 1:1, while the number of housing units in the United States, France, Germany and other countries is more than the number of households.

It is reported that more than 600 million square meters of commercial housing can be completed in cities and towns across the country this year, and the total sales of commercial housing is about 800 million square meters. However, to meet the needs of the monthly increase of 1 million urban population, as well as the needs of upgrading the consumption structure, more efforts will be made to ensure affordable housing in the future.

In this way, during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, China's housing transactions were still dominated by new housing transactions, with the current proportion of about 60%, which was different from that of mature developed countries, where new housing transactions accounted for about 10% of the total housing transactions (nearly 90% were old housing transactions).

At present, all regions are accelerating the establishment of affordable housing during the "12th Five Year Plan", and it is estimated that 10 million units will be built nationwide next year. The total demand for housing in the "12th Five Year Plan" is still large. Local governments will increase the construction of affordable housing and reserve space for urban floating population housing.

"The 12th Five Year Plan for housing security is clear in all provinces. It can be said without doubt that the 12th Five Year Plan period must be a period when the proportion of affordable housing construction is larger and the investment is increased," said Qin Hong.

She revealed that the public rental housing was covered by the increased proportion of affordable housing during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, which will be open to urban migrants.