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The Central Bank'S Net Investment Position Is Still Expected To Continue.

2011/1/7 18:16:00 79

While the central bank has continuously raised the deposit reserve ratio and the interest rate of deposit and loan, the central bank's open market operation has maintained relatively relaxed strength.

By the end of this week,

Central Bank

The open market operation has been putting money into the interbank market for 8 consecutive weeks.

Analysts believe that due to the Spring Festival approaching, the central bank's net investment position is still expected to continue.

Further tightening policy may depend on the trend of commercial bank lending in the beginning of the year.

This week the central bank issued 1 - year and March central bank bills on Tuesday and Thursday in the interbank market, with a total circulation of 1 billion yuan, unchanged from last week.

Since last November, the central issue has been running for several weeks to maintain several billion yuan, which has kept the central bank open market operating for 8 weeks. The central bank has accumulated a net investment of 357 billion yuan so far this week.

This week, the central bank put a net capital of 16 billion yuan into the market, and invested 35 billion yuan last week.

Central bank's continuous increase in deposit reserve

Gold rate

As well as the year-end settlement effect, the capital market in the interbank market was tight in December last year, pushing the interest rate of the fund to soar rapidly. This is the main reason for the central bank's continuous net investment.

With the arrival of the 2011 New Year, the effect of the inter year effect has gradually dissipated, and the intensity of market funds has been greatly alleviated.

However, analysts believe that the central bank's open market trend is still expected to continue.

Yin Ying, an analyst at CITIC Bank, said that the intensity of market funds has been significantly relieved, but because of the serious hang up of central issue rates and the two tier market,

Central bank ticket

The issue is difficult to quantify, and before the Spring Festival, the central bank will generally put money in the net. Therefore, it is hard for the central bank to change the trend of net investment in the near future.

This week's 1 - year central bank and March central issue rates rose 10.52 and 16.21 basis points respectively to 2.6167% and 2.1777% over last week, but still below the two - market interest rate level of 50 to 80 basis points. One or two market interest rates have a huge upside down interest rate.

Analysts pointed out that this shows that the market for future interest rate expectations are still strong, but the central bank obviously does not want to allow interest rates to rise too fast, which also limits the flexibility of the central bank's open market operation.

However, at present, the market generally believes that the possibility of a universal austerity policy before the Spring Festival is less likely.

Official Jiaying believes that the possibility of raising interest rates by the central bank is less than a year ago. The increase in the deposit reserve ratio depends on the rhythm of commercial banks' credit.

The research report released by CICC believes that the central bank may have less chance of raising interest rates in the month of 1~2. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank will probably restrain the bank's credit impulse through the differential deposit reserve ratio, the directional central bank's vote or the short-term repurchase and withdrawal of funds. The general statutory reserve rate is more likely to be implemented after the holiday.