Textile Enterprises Increase Greatly In Industrial Inventories, And Cotton Is Favored.

There are not many hot spots in the market recently. The post market will basically focus on the gap between production and demand at the end of the year, and whether the inventory consumption ratio at the beginning of next year can be found after the continuous decline for many years.

The author thinks that the high cotton price this year has a great influence on the total demand of cotton.

From this year's global output, we can see that the output of cotton in India, the United States and other major export countries has increased considerably over the past year except for a certain reduction in production in China. There is a lack of many factors that can stimulate the market to continue to deduce a large rise in the market. Last December, the huge volume of imports was only reflected in the quotations on the outer cotton market.

On the contrary, after the end of the smooth replenishment period of the spinning enterprises, the spot cotton may experience greater pressure. The reluctant sale of high cost may put the market in a stalemate. However, the improvement of supply and demand will inevitably cause a reprisal decline in price at a certain point in time.

Textile industry

- costs and profits run counter to domestic market stalemate.

According to the relevant data of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of December 24th, the average purchase price of seed cotton was 5.83 yuan / kg in October this year, up 73% over the same period last year, and the average acquisition cost of cotton seed was 24784 yuan / ton (excluding processing cost), up 84.8% compared to the same period last year.

In the lower reaches, if we use the current cotton price to calculate the profit of the mill, it is also low since last year.

Cotton traders are reluctant to sell the cost, and the downstream profits are shrunk, and the domestic stock market is at a stalemate.

The author expects that the awkward situation of cash is expected to continue, but the loss of final interest may be the high cost of cotton traders. After all, the market lacks the chips that once again provoke confidence, and the gap between supply and demand is not as intense as before, and there is no advantage in hoarding goods.

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Recently, it is difficult to have the trend market and pay attention to the mentality of textile enterprises after the festival.

With the arrival of the off-season orders, more and more closes and shutdowns have occurred in the recent cotton mills. In addition, the stock market is coming to an end.

The cost of goods on the spot is still relatively difficult to keep under the support of the cost. At this time, the mentality of spinning enterprises is more critical. If there is a better expectation for the downstream market, cash flow is more adequate for textile enterprises. Last year, the situation of resource shortage was visible, and there might be an action to replenish raw materials in advance. However, most textile enterprises in view of the high price of all links in the whole industry chain this year, the possibility of mass replenishment will not be great because of risk considerations.

On the whole, the stalemate of domestic cotton will continue. There are few trend opportunities before the year. There may be a short-term rise in spot prices after a year, and then there will be a weaker spot. I think this is a good opportunity for the futures market to intervene in the short end. It may be supported near the cost line of 25000 and pay close attention to the trend of the stock market.