China'S Cotton Production Index Declined In 2012/2013

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Cotton Research Institute and national cotton industry technology system research recently released 2012/2013 China

Report predicts cotton industry in 2012

In view of the grim global economic situation in 2012,

It is estimated that the area of cotton planting is decreasing.

The increase or decrease of cotton planting area is closely related to the price of last year. Due to the sharp decline in seed cotton purchase price in 2011, farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton was frustrated, and cotton planting area decreased in 2012.

Among them, the cotton planting area in the the Yellow River river basin is decreasing. The price of tomato, jujube, chili and so on in the northwest region has dropped significantly, and the cotton field is decreasing slightly.

The "four fee" problem of cotton planting is time-consuming, laborious and costly. The farmers think cotton planting is not cost-effective, especially the lack of confidence in cotton farmers in the the Yellow River River Basin.

The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are threatened by water shortage and spring, summer and drought. Cotton fields continue to "go down to the mountains", and the cotton planting area in some provinces has increased.

Cotton yarn output was flat or slightly increased.

Macroeconomic regulation and control will have a significant impact on the investment, structural adjustment and production of the textile industry, and accelerate the development of the industry to "high speed, high yield, automation and intellectualization", improve the quality and added value of products, and reduce production costs.

In view of the international oil price rising to more than 100 US dollars / barrel, plus cotton price approaching the normal level, it is expected that the proportion of cotton will be restored to the level of 2010, cotton output will be flat or slightly increased, and domestic cotton consumption will exceed 10 million tons.

Imports fell sharply.

In view of the sluggish cotton harvest and weak domestic consumption last year, coupled with the adjustment of sliding tax to reduce domestic and foreign spreads, cotton imports are expected to grow negatively this year, with an import volume of about 2 million 500 thousand tons.

Cotton prices showed a trend of increasing first or then increasing.

It is believed that the trend of cotton price will be steady and fluctuating first this year: first, the temporary storage price will be the "stabilizer" of domestic and foreign prices, and the cotton price will remain relatively stable at the level of 22 thousand to 23 thousand yuan / ton.

The two is the reduction of consumption and the lack of driving force to drive up prices.

The three is the import inflation caused by the current oil price increase, and the third quantitative easing that the United States may launch will drive price rise and market fluctuation.