Textile And Garment Industry: The Fourth Quarter Is The Key Quarter Of Brand Clothing Income And Profit.

　　 Spin The core of the turning point of the industry's performance is the steady rise of cotton prices after the demand has warmed up. For brands Clothes & Accessories The fourth quarter is the key quarter of brand clothing enterprises' income and profit, and consumer confidence and weather will be the key factors affecting the terminal performance of the fourth quarter.

Electronic information

Focus on innovative product launches

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, in 1-8 months, the added value of China's electronic manufacturing industry increased by 11.5% over the same period of last year, declining for 3 consecutive months. The sales value reached 53196 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9%, down 0.3 percentage points. In 1-8 months, the total import and export volume was US $737 billion 600 million, an increase of 2.2% over the same period last year. In the month of August, electronic information products exported 57 billion 200 million US dollars, down 4%, the growth rate was flat with last month, imports 45 billion 300 million US dollars, increased by 17.7%, and the growth rate was 13% higher than that of last month. On the periphery, the value of semiconductor in North America in August was 0.84, which continued to decline compared with that in June and July, while the value of BB in Japan was 0.95 and 0.89 respectively, and the value of BB began to decline. Data released by International Data Corporation show that in 2012, Q3 global PC shipments were 87 million 790 thousand, down 8.6% year-on-year. HP, Lenovo, DELL, Acer and ASUS ranked the top five in the market share.

Debon Securities believes that it can continue to pay attention to apple industry and Samsung's industrial chain, and also focus on the LED industry that will benefit from the rapid development of policies. It is recommended that we continue to pay attention to the intelligent terminal industry chain established by growth and the fast-growing stocks in the industry chain, such as the smart terminal industry chain's long precision, GoerTek acoustics, Changxin technology and Angjie technology.

　　 Spin clothing

Fourth quarter is the key quarter of profitability

Brand clothing since the three quarter Terminal retail The situation has not improved significantly, but at the same time, different levels of growth speed up differentiation. The retail situation of the three or four tier cities is better than that of the second tier cities. Clothing consumption has shifted significantly, and non department stores are better than department stores. The processing and manufacturing sector of textile and garment industry has a high degree of dependence on exports, which has continued for the first half of the year. Under the background of the overseas economic downturn, the low price spreads of cotton prices and the rising cost of elements, the boom has continued to decline. No matter from the quality of earnings, profits and profits, there is no obvious improvement.

Guoxin Securities believes that the core of the textile industry performance turning point is that cotton prices will stabilize and pick up after demand warms up. For brand clothing enterprises, the fourth quarter is the key quarter of brand clothing enterprises' income and profits. Consumer confidence and weather will be the key factors affecting the terminal performance of the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter valuation switch needs to be concerned about the relevant order meeting in 2013. In terms of stocks, it is recommended to focus on the current small and still relatively fast expansion of the card slave Road, search special and long group shares, and in the four quarter there is the opportunity to switch valuations; at the same time, long-term steadfast and optimistic about the investment value of Shanghai Jahwa. At the same time, tracking the fourth quarter of the terminal situation, focusing on the valuation of the depth adjustment of key companies rebound opportunities, seven wolves and news birds performance certainty is strong, and valuation has repair space.

Machinery and equipment

Attention should be paid to infrastructure investment.

In September, 28 major excavator manufacturers sold 5905 excavators, an increase of 7% in the ring ratio, a decrease of 33% compared with the same period last year. The decline has been increasing month by month since May, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease of 37%. Among them, Sany 624 units, an increase of 13%, a year-on-year decrease of 45%, a cumulative decrease of 18% over the same period. In terms of occupancy, the market share of domestic brands is 53%, and the market share is 4 percentage points higher. The market share of Japanese and Korean brands is 20% and 13% respectively, which has been declining since February and the European brand market is 14%. In terms of market demand structure, the proportion of small dig, medium dig and big dig in September was 39%, 51% and 10% respectively, and the demand for large dig has decreased continuously since June, and the decrease has reached 6 percentage points. From the analysis of regional sales volume, the eastern, central and western cities accounted for 26%, 27% and 33% respectively in September, while the eastern and central cities accounted for 3 percentage points in the past two months. In September, the export of excavators continued to grow at a high level, and the number of export outlets was 809, an increase of 63% over the same period last year.

Galaxy Securities believes that railway infrastructure investment increased by 111% in September, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16%. For construction machinery and other construction equipment, railway investment will speed up the use of construction machinery, play a role in stabilizing sales in the industry, and may have little impact on the sales of new aircraft. It is necessary to observe the sustained investment intensity and other downstream recovery situations, and the plate opportunities of construction machinery still need to wait. In terms of stocks, ZOOMLION and Anhui are jointly recommended in the medium term.