Reinhardt Analyzes Key Support Position Of US Cotton

< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > cotton futures < /a > - after a brief pause, prices continue to rise. As reported in the previous report, temporary market resistance is minimal. Therefore, fighting against the trend is still a very difficult matter.

Obviously, the higher the price and the faster the speed, the thinner the popularity will be and the greater the chance of a sharp fall.

However, for now, there is not enough evidence in the market that the market has built a lasting top in this process.

Special attention should be paid to further changes in the volume of empty disk.

If the volume of empty disk starts to decrease significantly, it may be the first important warning signal.

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P Technology: after breaking 85 cents, the price is approaching second important price targets and resistance levels (92.50 cents, 13 year May contract).

If we break through and confirm, the market will test 94.50-96.00 cents.

Corrective callbacks will find good support in 86.00-83.50 cents.

The key support is about 81.50 cents.

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< p > us - as the 13 year contract in December approached 90 cents, we believe that the price level will attract more farmers to grow cotton.

For producers, such a cotton income level is a viable alternative to competing crops.

The cotton production income also indicates the potential income of seed cotton and lint.

American cotton ginning plants usually accept cottonseed as the cost of ginning service.

However, when the price of cotton seeds sold by the ginning plant is far more than that of the cotton ginning, the ginning plant will pay seed kickbacks to the growers after the end of the cotton ginning season.

In the past few seasons, this little known kickback is quite impressive. In some cases, it is as high as 15 cents per pound.

Many manufacturers now have the ability to lock prices near the 90 cent market, so fiber and seed revenues may add up to more than $1 / pound.

Many producers originally planned not to grow cotton this year, or significantly reduce cotton planting area.

Now, we see that the tide is turning to cotton.

In March 30th, the government will issue the next spring planting intention report. Because the planter still has 60 days to make the final planting decision, the intention of the report may not be true.

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< p > China - after a short period of consolidation after slightly higher than the important short-term support position 20000 (13 year September contract), the market continues to follow ICE's strong performance.

Today, the price of the contract is estimated at around 20500 yuan. If this price is broken, it may indicate that the price will approach the next important resistance area 21000 to 21130 yuan.

However, various momentum indicators remain divided on the trend of related prices.

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< p > this week, the biggest news in China is the political pition of the National People's Congress.

We see that the reform of the textile industry remains to be seen and will mainly depend on the reorganization of high-level people and the results will be seen in the next few weeks or months.

Rumor has it that the reserve cotton policy has begun to change, including reducing the minimum selling price of reserve cotton.

Another news is that in February, the import of raw cotton was 378700 tons, so the total foreign cotton imports exceeded 2 million 100 thousand tons since August 2012.

Consignments of cotton continue to grow and warehouse space is getting smaller.

China customs also reported that textile and clothing exports increased by nearly 70% in February compared with the same period last year, indicating that 2013 is progressing smoothly and 2013 will be another record year of export.

The spot business of imported cotton remains elusive, and it is becoming less competitive compared with the sale of cotton reserves.

Last week, the average sales rate of reserve cotton was less than 25%, compared with the daily sales rate of 32% a week after the Chinese New Year.

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< p > Pakistan - recently < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > lint price < /a > stronger and less business.

Market stocks fell rapidly and cotton futures broke 90 cents to curb cotton prices in recent months.

The demand for yarn and textiles keeps flowing, driving cotton prices up.

The Pakistan spinning plant appears to be expanding its capacity and plans to provide value-added products in the coming months.

The spinning factory in Pakistan has been smiling happily.

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The P > India - a href= "http://cailiao.sjfzxm.com/Matertial/show/default.aspx" > domestic price < /a > is still strong, and the sales of the ginning plant and the farmers are limited.

Domestic and export market demand is moderate.

According to the latest data from the India Cotton Corp, by the end of March 10, 2013 this year (October 1, 2012), the total volume of 22 million 560 thousand packages arrived in India, a decrease of 5% over the same period last year, mainly from the number of goods arriving in Gujarat.

India South Textile Mill asks West Africa cotton for delivery in April / May.

The report shows that there are a small number of sales.

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