Safe Inspection Of False Foreign Trade Data Indicates That RMB Should Weaken And Offshore.

　 * safe moves to combat short-term capital inflows

* tightening the upper limit of the bank's comprehensive position.

* strictly check the false export data.

* RMB Softened and offshore

Analysts pointed out that the new regulation is highly targeted, and the four clauses are mainly to prevent the abnormal cross-border capital inflow. It also shows that the phenomenon of foreign trade export growth is indeed there. Through this thorough investigation, it will help to grasp the real trade data and the pressure of RMB appreciation.

The data also show that because the current foreign and foreign banks' foreign currency loan to deposit ratio has exceeded the standard, the pressure of US dollar refunding will be greater, and the impact on the market will continue to ferment. And many hedge funds in offshore markets are betting on the appreciation of the renminbi, which will result in a bigger decline in offshore renminbi.

"What the central bank really needs to face now is not the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but the inflow of abnormal capital." Senior foreign exchange research expert Tang Yajian said.

He pointed out that the key point of the safe operation is the current key point, which will be effective in the short term, but in the medium term, we need to reform the exchange rate formation mechanism. In the long run, we should straighten out the entire price system, such as the export price of key elements and the implicit subsidy.

3 at the end of the month, China's financial institutions foreign exchange The balance is $441 billion 565 million, and foreign exchange loans are US $754 billion 346 million, excluding deductions. The loan to deposit ratio is as high as 170%.

The recent research and reports on the growth of export figures in the first quarter are common in recent years. The market is generally worried that puffed export data is one of the drivers of the recent appreciation of the renminbi, but false data also leave a hidden danger for the Chinese economy.

In an interview with Reuters, an unnamed official of the Central Bank of China also said that customs statistics and imports and exports data did not tally with the statistics of goods trade receipts and statistics of the safe, especially in this year, the former is much larger than the latter.

"The main gap may be the" idling "phenomenon caused by international logistics and distribution, but it does not exclude the driving force of arbitrage factors. The official said.

Although China's GDP and other economic data were weaker than expected in the first quarter, the bright data of foreign trade data was unexpected. In particular, Guangdong's import and export value continued to rank first in the country. After deducting exchange rate factors, it increased by 37.7% over the same period last year. Among them, Guangdong's trade volume with Hongkong reached 84 billion 260 million US dollars, an increase of 91.6%.

In the first quarter, China's exports increased by 18.4%, imports increased by 8.4%, and the foreign trade balance reached US $43 billion 70 million, compared with us $670 million in the same period last year.

* new regulations on position management affect big * * *

The measures adopted by the safe are highly targeted and standardized for different businesses, including bank positions, foreign exchange settlement, and foreign exchange loan to deposit ratio. This will inevitably affect the foreign exchange loans of banks.

"Consider the position and consider the loan to deposit ratio to make loans, which is more stringent than in the past." Xie Yaxuan, director of macro analysis of China Merchants Securities, said.

China's top financial executives have said many times last year that the yuan is not far from the equilibrium exchange rate. Therefore, last April, the new management approach of foreign exchange settlement and sale by the safe has allowed the positions of commercial banks to fluctuate between positive and negative values.

"That is, the amount of foreign exchange that can be sold is larger than that of foreign exchange settlement, for example, the lower limit of comprehensive position of foreign exchange and sales is -1000 million, but now it can only be transferred from negative to positive, so it is difficult to sell foreign exchange more than foreign exchange settlement." Xie Yaxuan also said.

Tang Yajian pointed out that by restricting the bank's foreign exchange settlement position, the purpose is to manage cross border capital flows and the central link of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings. By controlling the target of bank's foreign exchange and selling, controlling the cost of domestic and foreign banks' funds, controlling and interbank transactions, controlling the sale and repurchase of the clients, controlling trade financing and controlling the inflow of funds.

In his view, at present, this policy has more constraints on foreign banks' manipulation of foreign funds than domestic banks.

In response to the new deal, Paul Mackel, head of HSBC Asian exchange research, also released a report that the recent increase in foreign exchange loans is related to arbitrage activities in the foreign exchange market. At the end of March, the loan to deposit ratio was estimated at 170%. After deducting policy banks, it was estimated that the banking system would have a net US $480-630 position.

The central bank data show that excluding policy banks, the proportion of domestic foreign exchange loans / foreign exchange deposits by domestic banks at the end of 2012 was 95%.

* * RMB rise temporarily postponed.

Analysts pointed out that strict investigation of false Export trade It is expected that the US dollar demand for the foreign exchange market will be triggered by a disguised increase in the comprehensive position of the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sale, as well as the issuance of foreign exchange loans with loan to deposit ratio.

Tang Yajian pointed out that the new deal aimed at combating the inflow of hot money, and it is the action of the central bank familiar with the road, so it will certainly be effective. It will curb the sudden entry of abnormal capital and relieve the pressure of RMB appreciation. At the next stage, the appreciation of the renminbi will no longer be like that of April.

But he also believes that the policy will not change the long-term trend of the RMB.

Xie Yaxuan also pointed out that because the whole policy is to prevent or control the inflow of arbitrage funds, it will obviously reduce the pressure of capital inflow and RMB appreciation. At the same time, the market change caused by this policy is a good opportunity to test the extent of arbitrage funds to push up the RMB.

The renminbi fell more sharply in the offshore market on Monday. It once collapsed 400 points, fell to more than three weeks low 6.1930, while the foreign exchange trading center fell to 6.1667, or 0.18%.

Traders pointed out that the continuous appreciation of the RMB over the past two months has attracted many hedge funds to open long positions in the offshore market, and suddenly turned to cause more and more killing of the renminbi.