Review And Prospect Of Polyester Industry In June 2008

Content: in 2008, more than half of the chemical fiber industry has fallen rapidly from the peak of a boom cycle to the bottom of the valley. In the battle of market, price and cost, the profitability of many chemical fiber enterprises has gone from bad to worse, and some small and medium-sized enterprises have to go out of business.

Compared with last year's bull market, the overall performance of the polyester market this year is rather dull. Enterprises are caught in difficult and difficult days at both cost and demand levels, and the overall rise in prices of oil, electricity and steam will also bring greater challenges.

First, the market review of the polyester market as a whole in June showed an overall trend of fluctuation, and the prices of various products fluctuated considerably. From the market performance, the turning point of the market was basically at the end of the middle period. The steady upward trend in the first half of the year was mainly due to cost support. However, the fast rising and unbearable cost pressures eventually led to a boycott of the downstream. Polyester products gradually entered a weak adjustment pattern in the second half of the month. Up to now, the total growth of semifinished chips is still around 400 yuan / ton, polyester filament is 200-600 yuan / ton, and polyester staple fiber has risen to 750 yuan / ton.

(1) polyester filament in its own supply and demand bias to the seller, polyester factory load has not been significantly reduced, polyester production and marketing is still strong overall, PX spot continued to skyrocket, PTA spot rose has been irresistible, at the beginning of the month, the price of the interior easily broke through the 9000 yuan / ton pass, within a few days rose to hundreds of dollars, and MEG spot also up to the volume, the overall performance is very strong.

Thanks to the strong pull of raw material costs, the domestic polyester filament market steadily increased in the first half of the month, of which FDY products rose the largest, and the rise of DTY and POY was relatively moderate.

In terms of market performance, coarse Dan FDY sales were still relatively good, while DTY silk sales continued to be blocked, and the stock of the conventional full play grey fabric in the downstream was larger, and the weaving factory was slow in purchasing DTY.

The production and sales rate of this enterprise has been maintained at above 100% level. The inventory in the early stage has been effectively digested, and the inventory of FDY and POY has been reduced to about 10-15 days, and DTY stock is still under 20 days.

Under the constraints of the appreciation of the renminbi, the increase of fabrics and the low rate of weaving, the polyester factories have enormous pressure on the shift of costs. Especially after entering the middle of the 20th century, many polyester factories have already used relatively low raw material reserves, and the use of high priced raw materials has arrived. Under such circumstances, the production of this polyester factory is undoubtedly "losing money and making money".

In the face of rising raw materials, the boycott of polyester factories began to appear. Some manufacturers began to cut down production, and the spot of PTA continued to decline.

Recently, popular fabrics and stock fabrics have shown a steady downward trend. Only a few new fabrics have slightly superior prices, and the price has risen slightly. The fabric market is already in the low sales season. Due to the lack of demand, the bank also has to face the pressure of bank repayment in the two quarter. The downstream textile enterprises or their profits are thin or loss. The operation is rather laborious. The phenomenon of stopping and closing is increasing day by day, and the overall start-up rate is around 70%, and some of them have dropped to 40%.

With the decline of purchasing strength of weaving enterprises, the production and sales rate of spinning factories has dropped to 3-7, and the upstream raw materials have been in a downward trend. The impact of polyester on the rise has been curbed, and the stock of enterprises has gone up again.

(2) because of the urgent need for relief tents and the strong performance of upstream raw materials, the polyester filament market has become warmer since the middle of the 5 month. With the continuous development of oil prices, the buying and selling mentality of the downstream market has also been reflected. The production and sales rate of polyester and short businesses has risen to 8, and the price of products has started to pick up slightly. However, the yarn product has not obviously increased, and its sales situation is still not ideal, and the production enthusiasm of the cotton mill is still not high.

Driven by the alarming rise in oil prices, in the first half of June, petrochemical aromatics continued to soar. The spot price of PTA and MEG also rose strongly, and the production and sales performance continued to be good, thus promoting the market of polyester products steadily rising. The stock of polyester and short enterprises was effectively consumed. The 1.4D direct spun polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rose to 12100-12200 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month to 12100-12200 yuan / ton, or up to 1000 yuan / ton.

Affected by the short price increase, the price of pure polyester yarn has also risen, but the overall sales are still more difficult. Because of the lack of order support, the manufacturers generally lack confidence in the market, and the price increase is rather weak. By the end of the middle period, the mainstream price of 32S pure polyester yarn mill in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded to 15000 yuan / ton level, or around 300 yuan / ton.

In the second half of the year, although oil prices continue to create miracles, the resistance of the downstream textile market is becoming increasingly apparent.

Although the average inventory level is only about a week, polyester and short enterprises are mostly in a state of deficit operation, and there is no room for products to be reduced.

Two, production and consumption (1) output. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of polyester fiber in China in May 2008 was 1 million 706 thousand tons, which was basically the same as last month, a slight increase of 0.04% compared with last month, an increase of 5.93% over the same period last year.

The production of polyester in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Fujian provinces in this month were 857 thousand tons, 608 thousand and 900 tons and 93 thousand tons, respectively, accounting for 50.24%, 35.69% and 5.45% of the total output of the country. From the rate of growth, the output of Zhejiang province was 2.96% growth, and the output of Jiangsu and Fujian was 13.56% and 2.70% compared with the last month, respectively. Among other provinces, the output of Guangdong province was increased by 13.93%, and the output of Sichuan and Shanghai two provinces and cities was also increasing.

Before May this year, China's Enterprises above Designated Size accumulated 8 million 26 thousand and 400 tons of polyester fiber, an increase of 9.47% over the same period last year.

From the perspective of provinces and cities, the polyester production in the former May is still highly concentrated in the three provinces of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Fujian, accounting for 91.38% of the total, while the proportion of Guangdong and Shanghai is 1.46% and 1.40%, respectively, fourth and fifth.

In the above five provinces and cities, the output of Shanghai before May is now on the negative side, decreasing by -15.27% compared with the same period last year. The growth rates in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangdong were 12.04%, 11.44%, 5.35% and 7.76% respectively.

Entering the June, oil prices continued to create a new high level, petrochemical aromatics products continued to soar, PTA spot price rise is also quite strong, polyester products production and marketing price rise steadily, to mid business inventory pressure has been eased, the same period production load has not dropped significantly, entered the second half of the month, as the downstream resistance gradually increased, polyester production and sales declined rapidly, and with the use of high priced spare parts, polyester production costs continue to increase, many manufacturers due to operating pressure has been reduced load, statistics have said that it has dropped to around 70%, and now it has dropped to around 70%, it is estimated that polyester production will be down in June.

(2) in order to avoid fierce homogenization competition in the domestic market, some enterprises will expand the international market as the main direction of development. In recent years, slicing, polyester and polyester short has been gradually pformed into net export commodities, and the trade deficit has been increasing year by year. At present, exports have been the best solution to ease the contradiction between domestic production and demand.

According to customs data, the export volume of polyester fiber in China in May 2008 was 108 thousand and 800 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons compared with April, while the import volume was 27 thousand and 300 tons during the same period, a decrease of 3 thousand and 300 tons compared with that in April, with a net increase of -8.15 million tons.

Based on the comprehensive production data, we can see that the apparent consumption of PET fiber in China in May was about 1 million 624 thousand and 500 tons, a slight decrease of 3 thousand tons from the previous month.

According to sub varieties, the export volume of PET staple fiber in China in 2008 May was 38 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 1 thousand and 100 tons compared with April, an increase of 2.80% over the same period last year, an increase of 14.77% over the same period last year, an import volume of 11 thousand tons, a decrease of 13.80% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 39.97% over the same period last year, and a net resource of -2.78 million tons.

In May, the export volume of polyester filament was 69 thousand and 900 tons, a decrease of 0.86% compared with April, an increase of 55.41% over the same period last year. The import volume was 16 thousand and 300 tons, a decrease of 8.46% in the ring ratio, a decrease of 22.99% over the same period last year, and a net resource of -5.36 million tons.

In the first half of June, the price of Asian MX rose to a record high of $147 / ton, rising from $1093 / ton in the beginning of the month to 1240 US dollars / ton at the end of the month. The Asian MX spot price has been continuously refreshed, rising from 1275 US dollars / ton oscillation at the beginning of the month to US $1420 / tonne. The cumulative increase has reached US $145 / ton. It has entered the adjustment stage in the second half of the month, dropping slightly to the 1380 US dollars / ton at the end of this month. The Asian PX spot performance is also quite strong this month. It has continued to soar from the 1490 US dollars / ton in the beginning of the month to the 1685 dollar / ton FOB in the middle of the month. Three, profit situation (1) PX unit cost =MX+180~200 USD / ton, due to high oil prices and tight supply, Asian naphtha in June remained unchanged.

Analysis shows that the high price of naphtha and MX is the main reason leading to PX's high level. In addition, the unexpected parking of several sets of PX devices has led to abnormal supply in July, which has directly stimulated the price soaring. However, with the downward pfer of cost, the weaving enterprises and polyester factories that are unable to bear the cost pressure have resisted. The PTA spot has fallen down in the second half of the month, and the PX spot in Asia has also entered the adjustment pattern.

MX is the raw material for direct production of PX. PX producers believe that the price difference between PX and isomerization xylene should be 180-200 dollars / ton to ensure profit margins. At present, the spot price of MX in Asia is near $1380 / ton, and the spot price of PX is $1640 / ton, and the difference between the two is as high as 260 US dollars / ton.

(2) PTA unit cost =PX * 0.665+150~170 USD / ton beginning of the month, mainstream PX suppliers have issued June PX contract execution price, ExxonMobil and Nippon Oil all settled at US $1440 / ton (CFRL/C90 days), up 150 US dollars / ton compared to May, and cost accounting at this execution price. In June, the cost of PTA manufacturers concentrated near 1108-1128 US dollars / ton.

In the early PTA spot prices slowly rising, at the same time, due to the possible remedies for the revaluation of the contracted goods, polyester factories chose more expensive PTA contracts to boycott the relatively low price spot at the time. They wanted to curb spot demand by purchasing contract goods, thereby reducing the spot price and pave the way for the low cargo contract. At present, the polyester plant's PTA PTA contract has been fully fulfilled, and the opening price is basically at the level of $1150 / ton, so the profit of PTA manufacturers this month is $22-42 / ton.

In mid June, the PX Asian contract quotation was released in July. Exxon Mobil, Japan light and new Japan stone were all reported at 1750-1760 US dollars / ton, much higher than US $1450 and US $1460 / ton in June. Such a huge monthly price increase has been quite rare in recent years.

According to the current trend, the settlement price of the PX contract in July is likely to be reached near 1680-1700 US dollars / ton. After calculating, the guaranteed cost of PTA in July will also be in the range of 1280-1300 US dollars / ton, compared with the current spot market price, there will still be enough space for us $80-90 / ton to guarantee our own profits.

(3) MEG unit cost = ethylene * 0.65+120 USD / ton although few MEG factories purchase ethylene to produce MEG, but because of the price or profit of ethylene is much higher than MEG, its potential impact on MEG still exists.

With the rise of oil prices, ethylene prices in Asia have also seen a substantial increase since June. At present, ethylene prices in Asia have stabilized at 1640-1650 US dollars / tonne CFR Northeast Asia, assuming that 100% of MEG factories are purchasing.