Multiple Factors Led To The RMB Mutual Derogatory Market And The Central Bank Mutual Trial Bottom Line?

< p > Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Greater China, expects that the renminbi will depreciate in the coming months. The main reason is the weakening domestic economy. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate will be 7.2% in the first quarter. In this case, there is a possibility of reducing the < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/ index_c.asp" deposit reserve ratio < /a >.

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< p > from the market level, the current empty sentiment is widespread. On the one hand, because of the continued depreciation of the RMB, especially after breaking through 6.2 of the market psychological point, it leads to more short accumulation. On the other hand, the previous super Japanese debt default and the outbreak of many kinds of default events have made investors worry that China may face a large area of credit risk.

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< p > in addition, from the international point of view, the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> the Federal Reserve" /a "19 announced that the size of the monthly purchase debt will be further reduced by 10 billion US dollars to 55 billion US dollars, and that it will increase interest rates in about 6 months after the withdrawal of quantitative easing (QE), strengthening the anticipation of the US interest rate hike ahead.

On the following 20 days, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.1460, setting a new low in the year. Such a downward trend is easily interpreted by the market as a signal of further depreciation.

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< p > yesterday, the difference between the highest point of RMB spot exchange rate and the middle price of the day has reached 880 basis points. Fu Peng, chief macroeconomic adviser of Galaxy futures, said: "at present, it may have reached the psychological bottom line of the central bank. The current situation should be that the market is testing the bottom line."

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"P," a foreign trader also said: "the current depreciation may continue, the specific location is not easy to say, basically is the market and the central bank to observe each other."

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< p > before the RMB against the US dollar fell below 6.2, including a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Goldman Sachs /a > and many other institutions, 6.2 is a key psychological point. Once the market is broken, the market will be further concentrated. This will further suppress the RMB exchange rate, which will accelerate the downward trend of the RMB exchange rate.

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< p > < 6.2 > as a psychological point, on the one hand, this is because it is a crucial integer pass. On the other hand, it may be related to the investor's lock in price theoretically. If it is the latter, it needs to have a clear grasp of all the customers' trading information, but it is very difficult.

China Merchants Bank analyst Liu Dongliang told reporters.

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< p > according to foreign media reports, a large number of products will trigger the exercise of rights in the RMB exchange rate range of 6.15~6.20, and the holders will face losses.

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< p > however, from yesterday's situation, the 6.2 short squeeze did not significantly accelerate the downward trend of the RMB. After falling below the 6.23 mark, it has been in a sideways shock.

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< p > the market began to care about where the next key point is.

Zhao Qingming, an expert on international financial issues, said: "the central bank's psychological position should be 6.25, that is, the downward 3% of the previous paction's high point of 6.04."

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< p > The Research Report of Founder Securities believes that the RMB spot exchange rate should depreciate to around 6.3 under the background of multiple factors driving RMB devaluation.

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< p > "at present, we can not see the presupposition of the central bank. It is felt that the central bank is watching the market with interest, and it is also pleased to see the current two-way volatility. Unless the extreme situation, the central bank should have no incentive to intervene in the market."

Liu Dongliang analysis said.

The extreme cases he referred to included the significant devaluation of the Yuan's devaluation, or a continuous drop in the number of days.

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< p > for the current round of devaluation, the consensus of many foreign exchange parties is that the weakness is likely to start with management guidance, partly aimed at squeezing overseas arbitrage funds and setting up a two-way fluctuation in the market.

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< p > because of the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB, the large export companies have locked the exchange rate with banks earlier this year, and if they appreciate, they will be operated by banks to digest risks.

However, after the current turn of the renminbi, the company and the bank settled it to real exchange settlement.

But he still can't help wondering: if the value of a short devaluation has begun to rise rapidly, then will it be in vain?

< p > a number of toy export enterprises have also told reporters that the depreciation of the RMB has not brought about an increase in export orders, which has made buyers and sellers in a stalemate.

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< p > "worried that the RMB will rebound again after this period of depreciation, so our quoted price has not been adjusted according to the exchange rate changes. The current exchange rate trend is not clear. In case of RMB appreciation, our current profit margin of about 5% will be eroded."

Gu Wu, general manager of Shenzhen huun Kun Industrial Development Co., Ltd., told reporters.

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