RMB Exchange Rate Is Low Again

Under the impetus of the overnight dollar index, the RMB exchange rate in the domestic foreign exchange market was set at 6.171 yesterday, down 15 basis points from the previous trading day, reaching a new low of nearly 9 months in P.

Market participants pointed out that < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > monetary policy < /a > tend to be directional easing, and the US dollar has been significantly stronger in recent years, leading to the recent phase of RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > exchange rate < /a > continued weak operation.

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The purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry in May, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (P) in June 1st, was 50.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month. It has been rising for 3 consecutive months, indicating that China's manufacturing industry will continue to be stable. The new export orders index and import index reflecting the manufacturing industry's foreign trade situation are 49.3% and 49%, respectively, which are all below the critical point, indicating that export oriented enterprises are still under pressure.

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"P > HSBC China a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> macro economy < /a > Shi Ma Xiao Ping believes that the depreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB will help China's foreign trade export to further improve. It is estimated that the contribution of net exports to GDP growth this year is expected to be positive.

Lu political commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, estimates that if China's export growth reaches 7.5% this year, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB should depreciate by 6.36%.

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< p > RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The hot money that borrowed before the RMB appreciation trend became a resistance.

According to cross border monitoring data, the "hot money" flowing into China in May continued to decline in April, and the further amplification of the decline confirms this point.

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< p > compared with the early market consensus, it is expected that the appreciation of the RMB will be "broken six" in the year, and the trend of RMB exchange rate is no longer consistent. At the end of the year, the New Zealand Bank, UBS and HSBC forecast that the RMB will depreciate by about 1.5% compared with the beginning of the year.

It is noteworthy that the floating rate of RMB exchange rate expanded, reducing the risk of hot money arbitrage, but also increased the uncertainty of import and export profits of enterprises.

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< p > therefore, it is necessary for foreign trade enterprises to actively adapt to, accelerate the cultivation of new competitive advantages, expand the use of RMB in import and export trade, and also need financial institutions to develop more exchange rate hedging products suitable for the needs of import and export enterprises and reasonably priced prices, so as to help enterprises improve their ability to accept and circumvent exchange rate risks and enhance their ability to serve the real economy.

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