PTA Is Overburdened By Weaker Downstream.

　　 PX Supply increased significantly

With the improvement of profits, the load of domestic PX devices has been rising, rising rapidly from the early 62% to the present 75%. In terms of new capacity, in June, when the new capacity of 1 million tons of PX was put into operation in South Korea, the 1 million tons of Total's capacity in July was also put into operation. However, due to technical failure, the shutdown of SK 1 million 300 thousand tons PX plant in Inchon was scheduled to start in the middle and late 7 months. The 920 thousand ton plant of India ONGC will start at the end of 7 month; the 800 thousand ton equipment of Singapore Kowloon aromatics will start in August.

From the commissioning situation, the new production capacity of PX was released from 6 to August, and the load of the old plant has been increased. The supply of PX is expected to increase greatly.

　　 PTA Heavy load increase

Beginning in mid May, the PTA factory jointly reduced production, and the load of the PTA plant rapidly declined, resulting in a tight supply in the spot market. PTA spot prices rebounded rapidly, and the cash flow of PTA factories also rebounded rapidly. However, after a series of maintenance devices have been restarted, the total capacity of PTA has reached 40 million 780 thousand tons, and the PTA load has increased from 54.9% in July 4th to 75%, which has increased by more than 20 percentage points.

　　 Downstream market to weaken

stay raw material Driven by the strong rise of PTA, the polyester market has been rising passively. However, because the terminal is in the low demand season, the ability of polyester to pass on the cost is insufficient, and the price rebounding of polyester products is limited.

The price of PTA began to adjust in July, and polyester quickly weakened after losing the cost push. In just half a month, most products fell 300 - 500 yuan / ton, and POY dropped 650 yuan / ton. At the same time, polyester production and sales rate has gone down, product inventories have increased significantly, and parking intention of enterprises has been enhanced. At present, the polyester load has dropped to 71.3% from 82.9% in mid May, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased from 76% to 62%.

On the whole, the PTA futures rebounded by 1432 yuan / ton on the theme of reduction in production under the condition of lower demand and large capacity increase. After entering July, with the increase of supply and further decline of downstream demand, the probability of PTA downlink will increase, and the 1409 contract will enter short-term oscillation pattern, or test the 7000 yuan / ton integer threshold support.