The Growth Rate Of Foreign Trade Seems To Be In The Doldrums.

On the face of it, the rising cost of comprehensive factors, the passive appreciation of RMB, the slump of PMI in manufacturing industry and the sluggish external demand are the reasons for the continuous decline of import and export. However, the import and export curve in the past ten years has indicated that the trade turning point, which relies on traditional advantages to maintain a high growth rate, is coming into the shift period. About 6% of the growth of foreign trade will be "new normal".

After the financial crisis in 2008, the global value chain entered a new round of adjustment. The United States implements the strategy of "advanced manufacturing" to promote the return and upgrading of the manufacturing industry; Germany promotes the "industrial 4 strategy"; Britain and France respectively implement the strategy of "high value manufacturing" and "new industrial France", brewing new industrial technology revolution and changing the global industrial chain, and at the same time, India and Southeast Asia rely on low labor strength to squeeze China's share in world trade.

The engine power shortage of foreign investment, which accounts for half of the export, is medium and long term trend. From January 2014 to November, China's manufacturing industry attracted a sharp decline in foreign investment. In addition to the relatively high year-on-year increase in investment from Korea and Britain, Japan and the US investment in China decreased by 40.8% and 22.2% respectively compared with the same period last year. The 28 countries' investment in China decreased by 9.8% compared with the same period last year, and ASEAN's investment in China dropped by 23.6% over the same period last year.

The reporter learned that although foreign investment in manufacturing industry has declined, and foreign investment in service industry has increased, the change in the structure of attracting foreign investment is affecting the quantity of import and export. Some foreign-funded enterprises have left R & D and logistics links in China, transferring labor-intensive manufacturing links to Southeast Asia. Zhejiang, Jiangsu The officials of Guangdong's business system also reflect that some Chinese manufacturing enterprises will also research and design in China and migrate part of the assembly to Southeast Asia.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, the export of traditional labor intensive industries such as textiles, shoes and hats and bags in developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and other developed countries has declined linearly in the past six years, while the exports of neighboring countries are rising. In 2000, 40% of Nike sneakers were made in China, and 13% were made in Vietnam. By 2013, only 30% of Chinese made shoes were manufactured, while Vietnam made 42%.

General trade exports exceed processing trade, which indicates that China's foreign trade has changed from externally driven to endogenous driven, and the quality of foreign trade has improved, and the trade structure is undergoing a deep adjustment. In January 2014 -11, China's general trade import and export accounted for 53.9% of the total value of foreign trade, up 11 percentage points from 2005.

The export of private enterprises over foreign capital and state-owned enterprises also indicates the rise of Chinese local enterprises. Customs data show that the growth rate of import and export of private enterprises in 2014 was higher than that of foreign enterprises and other types of enterprises, accounting for 45.8% of the total value of foreign trade.

Director, Department of foreign trade, Ministry of Commerce Zhang Ji Told reporters that foreign trade entering the new normal is not a fashionable statement, but a necessity of regularity. From the three aspects of trade rules, China's trade conditions and industrial laws, it has been overlooked that as early as seven years ago, the global financial crisis broke out, and foreign trade began to slow down and shift gears.

Zhang Ji analysis shows that the increase in foreign trade is no longer due to several factors: the long cycle of world economic prosperity has turned to shock recovery; the huge expansion of globalization led by multinational corporations has been shrinking because of the "industrial return" in Europe and America, and the contraction of developed countries in reviving exports. Over the past 30 years, globalization characterized by trade and investment facilitation and liberalization has begun to become conservative and protectionism has risen. The dividend of China's accession to WTO[micro-blog has come to an end. The pace of industrial transfer of global multinationals has slowed down, and industries and orders have been draining away from neighboring countries and regions.

Sun Jiwen, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that the era of rapid growth in foreign trade for more than 30 years is gone forever when talking about the current situation of China's foreign trade and import and export.

Some market participants feel this way. foreign trade The contribution rate to GDP is even slight or even negative. But this customary quantitative thinking has been refuted by scholars. Zhang Ji said that trade should be viewed in many dimensions. The expenditure method alone often underestimates the contribution rate of trade to the national economy and national welfare. The expenditure method values quantity, and the current international popular value added rule can more accurately estimate trade value.

"In 2014, imports grew by 0.4%, and in December only 0.2%, not because imports dragged down the economy. On the contrary, in the trend of increasing volume and falling prices, not only did we save 40 billion US dollars in foreign exchange, but also imported resources, technologies and key components needed for industrial upgrading. Consumption has also increased with imports. Zhang Ji said. The expert team organized by the Ministry of Commerce maintains the value of foreign trade by value added method every year.

In fact, with the increase of overseas processing trade parks, the establishment of overseas marketing centers and the expansion of export formats such as cross border purchasing, these spillover exports are not included in customs statistics, but they increase economic structure upgrading and national welfare, and guide domestic and foreign investment to flow into areas with high technology content in the value chain.

In fact, China's share of the world's trade has reached 12%, and the space for continued expansion is limited. This is precisely the capital and opportunity for China's foreign trade shift.

Behind the decline in the growth rate of foreign trade is the struggle and self redemption of a large number of enterprises. Director Zhang Ji said that during the shift period of foreign trade, enterprises were divided: powerful manufacturing enterprises and marketing enterprises were upgrading to high value-added industries.