Zhou Xiaochuan G20'S Speech Seemed To Confirm The Rumor.

According to the latest seller study, since June, the stock market crash has led to a 10 trillion yuan decrease in the share holding of Chinese households, and a significant increase in non bank loans has crowding out effect on demand for physical loans. Equity risk The rise in premium and foreign exchange outflow lead to tighter financing conditions and curb investment. The instability of the stock market may have a negative effect on the subsequent economic security 7.

At the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Zhou Xiaochuan said that the current exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has stabilized, and that the stock market adjustment has been roughly in place, and that the financial market is expected to be more stable.

A large number of Internet commentaries came out that Zhou had taken the heart of the stock market.

This may be overestimated. The phrase "stock market" is only a sentence with little meaning. As the only deputy official in charge of economic work in China, Zhou represented the Chinese government to placate the representatives of other countries in the conference and to convey confidence to the country.

In the early days of the bailout, there was a lot of market rumors that the central bank's attitude was relatively hesitant and conservative for whether to rescue the market. The most direct proof is that, on the evening of July 5th, the SFC announced that the central bank would give the certificate company liquidity support. It was a great day when the central bank failed to take the initiative. Until the morning of July 8th, the central bank spokesman gave a statement to support the steady development of the stock market and raised the level of bailout.

At this meeting, Zhou Xiao Sichuan The statement seems to confirm this rumor. He said: since mid June, China's stock market has undergone three rounds of adjustment. The first two rounds have no international influence, and the last round has certain global impact.

It seems that after the final approval of the banking system for the large scale loan support of the certification company, the central bank management really believes that the continued decline of the stock market is not very significant unless there is a "global impact".

Zhou Xiaochuan later stressed that the Chinese government has avoided the cliff clipping and systemic risk of the stock market. This judgment, coupled with the fact that "the stock market adjustment has been roughly in place", may give way. Investment It is speculated whether the central bank will continue to support the stock buying of debt companies. If the volume is gradually reduced, the official buying power of the stock market may gradually weaken, which may not be a good sign.

As for another statement by President Zhou, the gradual stabilization of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may be related to the recent outflow rate of foreign exchange.

China's huge foreign exchange reserves have been considered to be able to compete against global hedge funds, but if the currency is not reliably predicted, large scale exchange movements among domestic groups may create currency collapses that are far more dangerous than the stock market crash. Even if there are only 20 million residents, each will convert to 50 thousand US dollars, the total amount will be as high as 1 trillion US dollars, which will have a fatal impact on the external storage and then destroy the RMB. Currency confidence is bearish, which will inevitably lead to more capital withdrawal from the stock market, which is not good news for the stock market.