What Is The Trend Of The Stock Market?
We have discussed the most important source of systemic risk in the global market.
You have to enter the totally negative mode to ignore the global market that is becoming more and more dangerous: the currency has been greatly depreciated, trade and freight have also collapsed, commodities are in syncope, and global stock markets are increasingly dependent on the support of the central bank.
Gordon long and I recently discussed in a 28 minute video program how bad the global market would be.
We also discussed the most important systemic sources of risk in the global market:
1, worldwide
debt
Too much; public and private debt has risen sharply since 2008.
2, unfair incentives have led to unfair Investment: corporate borrowing is used to buy back its own stock, rather than to invest in new capacity.
3, stagnant revenue /
revenue
Families, companies and countries can no longer afford more debt.
4, the rise of high-frequency trading also increases the probability of flashover and instability.
5, the appreciation of the dollar triggered capital flight from emerging markets and China.
6, the slowdown in China's economic growth has led to the collapse of commodity demand and the collapse of commodity dependent economies.
7, opaque banks: shadow banks in China, dark pools in offshore banking centers, etc.
The total amount of real debt, the quality of leverage and guarantee is unknown.
8, worldwide
Guarantee deterioration
。
In a market lacking liquidity, the demand for existing housing is very small. How much can China sell 60 million sets of vacant "investment" apartments in such a market? What is the true value of the quality assets marked on the US balance sheet?
Gordon predicted that the stock market might recover from its current downturns and form a shape of the head. That is to say, the stock market will still have a low rebound. After buying a low rebound, as the wheels of the economy have completely dropped out of the global "growth" mode, the stock market will finally have an overwhelming downward trend.
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