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Mo Kai Wei Said The Central Bank'S "Double Drop" Weapon Could Not Run Away.

2015/11/1 14:01:00 28

Mo Kai WeiThe Central BankDouble Down

Theoretically speaking, this will help to alleviate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises and the "three rural" financing.

Interest rate cuts also help to guide the entire social financing costs downward.

At the same time, the property market will rebound, let the real estate pass through the severe winter and boost the A share market into a new good market.

"Frost descend" season, the central bank again resorted to "double drop" weapon.

The central bank announced that it has cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points since October 24th and has dropped 0.5 percentage points.

At the same time, the central bank also announced the liberalization of deposit interest rate floating cap.

This is the sixth time since November last year, the fifth interest rate reduction, causing widespread concern.

If the central bank lowered interest rates several times ago, it was because of the high reserve requirement ratio and the tight liquidity of the market.

In view of the current general situation of money supply, there is no lack of liquidity in the market, and the capital side of commercial banks is also relatively loose.

In this financial environment, why is the central bank's interest rate dropping again?

This includes the consideration of stabilizing the money supply in the market, and the external pressure of increasing economic growth.

In the three quarter of GDP growth rate "breaking 7" in the background, in order to complete the goal of steady growth, two months later, we must accelerate the stimulus.

At present, the central bank also needs to optimize the orientation and implementation of the assessment criteria, strengthen positive incentives, and guide banks to continue to increase their support for key areas and weak links in the national economy.

At the same time, the central bank should be equipped with monetary control tools such as stopping refinancing and raising the deposit reserve ratio, as well as the interview and accountability of senior executives of banking institutions.

Economic punishment

And other non monetary policy measures to promote commercial banks regulate capital investment behavior.

The regulatory authorities should strengthen the supervision and inspection of the flow of funds and the implementation of the policy to reduce interest rates, so as to ensure that the "double reduction" effect is not discounted, so that it can be combined with the real economy financing, so that the real economy can get out of financing difficulties and finance difficulties.

For governments at all levels, we must speed up the reform of financing guarantee, standardize the development of government funded Guarantee Corporation, effectively provide financing guarantee for small and medium micro economy, and open up channels for financing between commercial banks and small and micro entities, so as to relieve the financing difficulties of the real economy.

Only in this way can we ensure that the monetary policy of reducing interest rates will not deviate from the promotion of the real economy.

In the second half of this year, the national development and Reform Commission approved the construction of railways, electricity and other infrastructure projects with trillions of yuan investment, which provided sufficient impetus for steady growth.

In order to ensure that these projects are scheduled to start on schedule and successfully completed, we must increase the supply of funds.

At the same time, as of the end of 9, China's foreign exchange reserves have declined for 5 consecutive quarters, partly offset the effectiveness of the central bank's market base money supply, which also requires the central bank to continue to reduce its quota to make up for the insufficient supply of the basic currency.

And the consumer index CPI "breaks 2", China has entered the de facto economic deflation era.

To stimulate domestic demand and boost employment growth and lay the foundation for boosting China's economy, it is necessary for the central bank to reduce interest rates to further stimulate domestic demand.

CPI "break 2" is also a big step for the central bank again.

Drop accuracy

There is plenty of room to cut interest rates.

From the reality, many funds have not been released into the real economy.

According to statistics, the first four reductions were released by 600 billion yuan, 12400 billion yuan, 470 billion yuan and 700 billion yuan respectively.

In less than a year, the central bank released a liquidity of 30100 billion yuan, which can be described as "heaven".

According to media reports, bank loans are linked to equity funds, trust products, fund products and other umbrella trust channels in the same period, and the funds to enter the stock market in the form of financing and other agencies such as brokerages and trusts are not less than 4 trillion yuan.

This shows that most of the funds released will be swallowed up by the stock market, the real estate market and the government bonds.

Real economy

This has not changed the dilemma of financing difficulties.

And this time a comprehensive reduction of 0.5%, can release 600 billion yuan to commercial banks; plus additional small and micro, "three rural" to drop 0.5%, about 200 billion yuan released, two items total about 700 billion ~9000 billion yuan of funds.

Theoretically speaking, this will help to alleviate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises and the "three rural" financing.

Interest rate cuts also help to guide the entire social financing costs downward.

At the same time, the property market will rebound, let the real estate pass through the severe winter and boost the A share market into a new good market.

But we must prevent the central bank's monetary policy from running away.

The central bank and the regulatory authorities should also increase guidance and supervision in the specific implementation of reducing capital flows and reducing interest rates.


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