Financial Markets Are Too Crowded To Open Traffic Control.

We can figure out that the number of people who depend on finance for dinner in the past two years is really increasing.

Now, apart from 8 trillion of the public fund, 10 trillion fund accounts and subsidiaries, 11 trillion brokerages, 16 trillion trusts, 5 trillion private equity, 14 trillion insurance, 26 trillion bank financing, and 2 trillion social security, including more than one trillion certificate companies, deducting some of the assets that coincide, the total amount of funds currently eaten by the financial market is about 80 trillion.

By the end of 14, bank financing was only 15 trillion, public funds, fund accounts and subsidiaries, brokerage firms and private equity funds were 20 trillion, trust 14 trillion, 10 trillion insurance, 1 trillion and 500 billion social security, and the total amount of assets deducted was about 50 trillion.

Since the beginning of the year, we have consistently recommended the gold partnership with gold and commodities, and are cautious about the stock market and bond markets. We suggest that physical assets are better than financial assets. In fact, they are also hoping to avoid the opportunities of people and stampede and look for certainty.

I hope everyone can calm down, calm and avoid.

Seize the big opportunity!

In other words, thanks to the two consecutive years of stock market Daniel, everyone squeezed into the financial market and wanted to get a slice of it.

But in this market

It is also limited. According to the latest data, the total size of the Treasury bond market is around 54 trillion, the market value of the stock market is about 35 trillion, and the total amount of financial assets that can be traded is about 90 trillion.

If the average return of 4%, the bond market can provide a stable return of about 2 trillion, according to about 2% of the dividend, the stock market provides a dividend return of about 700 billion, so the effective return of the financial market is actually only 3 trillion, which means that the average to 80 trillion of the market participation in the fund, in fact, the rate of return is difficult to exceed 4%.

Because in addition to the stock market dividend and the coupon of bonds, a large amount of capital flows into the market, which will increase the share price and the bond price, that is, the so-called capital gains or valuation gains, which is the root cause of the debt and debt in the past two years.

But if you study history, you will find it.

The valuation change is cyclical, and there is no valuation that will rise or fall forever. Once it deviates from the historical center too often, it will tend to mean regression.

That is to say, our financial industry is actually a farmer's industry. Its harvest depends mainly on the promotion of valuation, and the promotion of valuation is not as good as the production of physical enterprises. The linear prediction is often a few years and a few years. Therefore, based on the past two years, the good market and the desire to increase investment to get greater returns are not necessarily effective or even counterproductive.

Therefore, if we realize that we are relying on heaven for food, actually looking up at the sky is more important than looking down. If the direction is reversed, the greater the effort we may make, the greater the error this year.

If you look at the sky, the conclusion is that funds have been flowing to the financial market in the past two years, and the capital has been deformed to the virtual, so finance is king and stocks and debts are two cows.

But in turn, it means that funds in the financial market are too crowded, and the real economy is at the bottom after continuous deflation. Therefore, this year, the funds have gone from real to real, but on the contrary, physical assets have performed best, regardless of gold, iron ore, pork, vegetables, real estate and so on.