A Share Market Continued To Move Upward In The Concussion, The Gem Paction Revealed Significant Benefits.

This week, the A shares regained strength and broke through the new rebound. The blue chip sector formed an internal turn, and the overall operation was in good shape.

The agency believes that with the continuous help of buying, the market above the 3200 point is expected to continue, the pattern of large and small funds will not change.

Shanghai Stock Index weekly K line has formed a seven Lian Yang portfolio.

Correspondingly, the gem of emerging industries refers to the trend of downturn, and the mainstream funds return to traditional industries, especially the main board market, which is concentrated in cyclical industries. This means that the main market of this cycle is the cyclical stock market.

For the recent strong performance of cyclical stocks, the generally accepted logic is that cyclical product prices continue to rise, which is reflected in the futures market, that is, black commodity futures prices have risen for many years. Coke and coking coal have been called "double focus" in the industry, reflecting the love degree of futures market funds to coke and coking coal, and the rise of futures prices will directly drive the performance improvement of relevant listed companies.

Therefore, the share price of coal and coke continued to rise this year, which has become a strong engine driving the Shanghai stock index to rise steadily.

However, the continuation of price increases for cyclical products is controversial.

Pessimists believe that there is no obvious recovery of downstream demand, and the trend of rising prices of products is difficult to continue. Optimists believe that although the futures market regulators continue to raise the margin ratio and paction costs, the trend of product price rise has not changed, but on the contrary, it is becoming more and more intense. The bull market pattern of commodity futures market has strong basic support.

Insiders pointed out that in recent years, the cyclical industry continued to slump, making a large number of

Backward production capacity has withdrawn from the market and the market concentration has been raised.

Enterprises that can survive in a depressed market are either humane or strong in product cost competitiveness.

Therefore, the industry clearing really exceeded the market expectations, making the supply side shrink far beyond expectations. Once the industry demand is relatively stable, then the supply of products shrinks, resulting in a gap between supply and demand, resulting in the inevitable logic of rising product prices.

This has been corroborated in many industries such as coke, copper, pesticides, paper making and so on.

The corresponding product prices, both in the futures market and the spot market, continue to rise, and the space and time of the rise cycle exceed the expectations of market participants, and also change the market participants' prediction of the performance of Listed Companies in related industries.

Of course, strong cyclical products

The rise will inevitably drive the recovery of production capacity, which will lead to changes in the supply side.

However, insiders pointed out that investment in new capacity should not be overly optimistic.

On the one hand, the probability of re emergence of backward production capacity is very low, because the cost of re production is higher.

On the other hand, the policy objectives of local governments have changed slightly, from the early pursuit of GDP solely to performance goals, and gradually to an eco-friendly industrial atmosphere.

More importantly, the residents' awareness of environmental protection has been enhanced, and the "Chaoyang District masses" have followed the high pollution production line's comeback and recovery.

Against this background, it is hard to regenerate these backward and small and medium-sized production lines.

Although some cyclical products are in a recovery trend, they still do not reach the average cost of the whole industry.

For example, the shipping industry, the BDI index continues to rise, but the industry pointed out that the need to reach 1800 points to 2000 points, to achieve the average cost of the industry.

Therefore, at present, more than 1200 points are not enough to match the cost of revenue, and the probability of shipping capacity in shipyards is low.

Of course, in practical operation, we should take into account

Changes need to be taken into account in the demand side.

It is better to continue to converge on the supply side, at least not continue to expand, and then there is a positive change in demand side products.

At present, the demand side of pesticide products represented by tires, coke and glyphosate is changing positively, mainly because the RMB continues to depreciate, and the export momentum is expected to recover, thereby driving the performance of the listed companies involved in such products to be improved.

In addition, the relevant listed companies benefiting from the supply side structure reform such as steel, natural rubber and other products are also worth tracking.