The Current "Trump Trading Fever" Is Becoming More And More Difficult To Eliminate.

"Trump trading fever" still exists or not? This is a question answered by a bank of America analyst, Subreman Janeane, in a report. In this report, she said that the current "Trump trading fever" is not just a scene, but a number of fields, and these "trading fever" is becoming more and more difficult to eliminate. "In short, this is not a real" Trump trading fever ", but rather a number of" spanaction fever ". In the 5 months, the" trading fever "of these waves has changed. What are the major changes?

Although the US stock market continued to record a record high in February, the market trend has changed dramatically since the election. In the first month after the election, the stock market rebound was dominated by small cap stocks, cyclical stocks and low quality stocks. But since the beginning of December, these leading stocks have fallen behind. Therefore, in these wave of "Trump trading fever", most of the winners achieved their peak in early December, and then lagged behind the market.

As is shown in the table below, the market still believes that the government will carry out infrastructure reform, but it is not convinced that the government will reform the tax system. Despite the benefit of the Trump policy, most stocks in all sectors peaked in December, but some groups have already got their initial earnings. In particular, the beneficiary shares of domestic infrastructure spending have exceeded the market by 7 percentage points since the election. And lower tax rate The beneficial stock is only 4 percentage points higher than the 1000 index of the rose. This shows that the market still believes that despite the failure of health care reform, infrastructure spending and corporate tax reform will be passed.

In addition, since the election, the performance of industrial stocks most seriously affected by entry and exit tariff adjustment has been 6 percentage points lower than the market. Although some weaker performance may be attributed to a weak industrial base factor, the weaker market size indicates that the market underestimates the reasonable possibility of import tariffs.

In addition to taxation, Subreman Janeane also pointed out that although "last week's radical rejection of Obama health care reform and the rise in share prices of health care providers" may not be surprising, the performance of the industry actually began to exceed the market in early December. On the other hand, biotechnology and medicine. shares Volatility shows that the market initially saw Trump as a positive factor, but Trump's subsequent comments on drug pricing have reversed the initial upward trend in stock prices.

Finally, when it comes to all other " Trump When the spanaction is hot, Bank of America points out that the "spanaction fever" of these waves is difficult to be eliminated. To a large extent, the performance of stocks using offshore highly liquid cash is on average 2 percentage points higher than that of the big market, which may reflect the improvement in the trend of the technology industry and the global economic growth rate over the same period. In terms of reducing capital expenditure, the disproportionate number of enterprises will benefit from the immediate cost of capital expenditure, which are mainly energy companies, and their share price performance is affected by a large fluctuation in oil prices.

Heavily indebted energy companies are highly representative, and indebted companies are often vulnerable to the end of the interest deduction policy. Even when excluding energy companies in the analysis of indebted enterprises, the Bank of America can still get such a group of stocks that are extremely sensitive to credit policies. Their performance not only reflects policy expectations, but also represents the market's appetite for credit. Since the election, the performance of the beneficial stock of capital expenditure is lower than that of the stock market by an average of 6 percentage points, while the stock that is most likely to be affected by the interest deduction policy is slightly higher than the stock market - less than 1%.

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