October PTA Market Weak End Of The Market Situation Is Difficult To Pick Up.

Towards the end of October, back to the whole PTA market in October, along with the trade consultation, the new Feng Ming plant put into operation, the downstream polyester production and marketing is not good, the polyester stock accumulation and so on, the PTA spot spot is weakening. The main reason for the recent PTA decline is the expected release of the PTA device's capacity, resulting in a market sentiment.

chart One East China PTA Price and profit chart

Source: lung Chung

In October, the National Day holiday returned to the end of the month, and the PTA market declined. Supply side, after the National Day Hengli Petrochemical line 1 into the overhaul. Peng Wei petrochemical and Ya Dong Petrochemical entered a short stop, and Yisheng, Ningbo Yisheng device after the restart, the device restart and maintenance parallel. The operating rate is 82.95%. Demand side, polyester maintain rigid demand, load at 89.05%, downstream polyester market production and marketing has been maintained low. In late April, PTA market prices began to fall. Cost side, raw material PX is expected to be affected by Zhejiang petrochemical and Heng Yiwen Lai Xin plant. The price is declining. PTA cost collapse, the market once fell to 4818 yuan / ton nearby, spot price 4850 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.06% compared with the previous month. On the supply side, Hengli No. 1 device was restarted, and unit 2 entered the expected overhaul in October 26th. Honggang petrochemical and Yisheng Dalian have resumed operation. PTA's own load fell to 81.41%, down 3.78% from the previous month's annulus. Although the polyester plant started near 87.27%, and maintained a rigid demand for PTA, even if the polyester factories lowered their sales promotions, the overall production and sales were not satisfactory, and there was a reduction plan and a parking plan for the future market. At present, the new PTA market is expected to start production soon. The market is more worried about the PTA demand in the future. The trend of the PTA market's short-term market is hard to say. Pay attention to the progress of PTA's new commissioning plant, and the situation of polyester stock and production and marketing. As of October 28th, the PTA processing fee was 595 yuan / ton, down 195 yuan / ton from last month, and 24.68% lower than the ring.

Table 1 recent domestic PTA maintenance schedule

Enterprise name	Capacity (10000 tons)	Planned maintenance	Plan restart
Hengli petrochemical 1#	Two hundred and twenty	Ten Maintenance for 8 months	Ten 18 month has been resumed.
Jialong Petrochemical Company	Sixty	Eight Maintenance for 2 months	No restart
Ya Dong petrochemical	Seventy-five	Ten Short stop on 10	Ten 14 month has been resumed.
Fossilization	Ninety	Ten Maintenance for 10 months	Ten 28 month has been resumed.
Yanda Shanda	Two hundred and twenty-five	Ten On December 10, it dropped 5.	Ten 23 month has been resumed.
Honggang petrochemical	One hundred and fifty	Ten Maintenance for 14 months	Ten 28 month has been resumed.
Jiangyin Han Bang	Two hundred and twenty	Ten Maintenance for 25 months	15-20 day
Hengli petrochemical 2#	Two hundred and twenty	Ten Maintenance for 26 months	Overhaul for 12 days
Ya Dong petrochemical	Seventy-five	Scheduled for mid November maintenance	Overhaul for 15 days

Supply side: Hengli Petrochemical 1 line 2 million 200 thousand tons, Yanda Shenghua 1 million 400 thousand tons, Honggang Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand tons, Ya Dong Petrochemical 750 thousand tons, Peng Wei Petrochemical 900 thousand tons, Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons, Yisheng Ningbo 2 million 200 thousand tons respectively have maintenance and restart, therefore, the PTA operation rate is adjusted to 81.41%. On the whole, in November, Hengli line 2 continued to overhaul, 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon bang in Jiangyin continued to overhaul, and Ya Dong Petrochemical's 750 thousand ton plant had overhaul expectations, and the new 2 million 200 thousand km plant had new commissioning expectations. It is estimated that the average operating rate will be around 83.17% in October, and the output is expected to be near 3 million 700 thousand tons in October.

Demand side: there are polyester plant overhaul plans at the end of this month, such as wankai. However, the equipment for pre maintenance of Jin Lun has been postponed. Therefore, it is estimated that the recent polyester starts or a slight decline will not exclude other factories from adding or overhauling production. It is estimated that the average starting time of the polyester will be around 87.72% in the near future.

Forecast for future market:

It is expected that the PTA market will continue to weaken in early November, with an operating range of 4600-4900 yuan / ton. Next month, PTA maintenance and production co-exist, but the PTA's new production is expected to make the PTA oversupply of market expectations still exist, and the market price and processing fee of PTA are still under pressure. According to the processing fee of -2016 in 2014, the cost of processing is still around 200-250 yuan / ton, and the processing cost is still down by 200-250 yuan / ton. In addition, the price of raw materials is expected to be supported by the new operation of Zhejiang petrochemical and Hengyi Brunei. The support for the cost terminal is weak. At the same time, there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market orders. The profit of polyester manufacturers is further compressed, and the high inventory and low production and marketing modes will be staged again.