2019, The US Cotton Exports To China Are Limited.

Some traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places said that because the Sino US trade consultation reached the first stage agreement, and the main competitors Australia's cotton production and quality in 2019 were not strong enough, so all the US cotton exports to the Chinese market continued to grow well in 2019/20. However, since mid November, Chinese buyers have started signing contracts for the purchase of 2019/20 and 2020/21 cotton, and no longer cancelling the pre contract, but obviously lower than the expectations of US exporters and international cotton traders.

At present, the US cotton quotation is mainly based on the shipping schedule of 12/1/3 months, and the enthusiasm of the international cotton traders and importers in the pre-sale and quotation is very high. However, the enthusiasm of shipping and bonded enterprises is low. On the one hand, there is no clear information about whether the US cotton tariff is launched in China in the 2019/20 year. On the other hand, the supply of cotton in China is adequate, and the volume of the cotton stock in the port is still large (lower than in the first half of December), and the market is not short of cotton.

From the upstream and downstream market feedback, I believe that even if the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States fell to black and white, the US cotton exports to China in the year of 2019/20 were favorable, but the growth rate should not be exaggerated and should not be blindly optimistic.

First, from the text of the first stage of the trade agreement, the import of US agricultural products did not mention cotton. At least, it was not the focus of Sino US concerns and discussions. Two, in 2019/20, Texas cotton grades and quality were lower than expected, and the matching degree with the actual demand of Chinese textile enterprises declined. Judging from the quotations of cotton merchants, EMOT/MOT, ME and so on are mostly 41-4, 52-4, 31-3 and so on, and the fiber length is 35 and below. The breaking strength is 26-28GPT. There is a cotton blending problem in spinning high count yarn. Three, the price of FOB and CNF in the year of 2019/20 is less than that of Brazil cotton, West African cotton and India cotton. If we adopt the way of importing American cotton from the "market" of the enterprise, the US cotton also needs to "reduce its social status and adjust its mentality". Four, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the purchase and storage of 2019/20, the dumping and storage of domestic cotton and the stabilization of domestic cotton consumption will take a long time. Therefore, it is not expected that the import quota will be increased in 2020.