Cotton Prices Rose 10 Years In The Same Period The Highest (1)

In the early July, winter wheat had been harvested in the main wheat producing areas of Hebei, Shandong and Henan. Cao Shufang, a farmer in Zhengding County of Hebei, did not rush to sell the newly harvested wheat as he did in previous years.

"This year, new wheat has risen to 1 jin 1.04 yuan, last year 1 catties only then 8 wool many, these days should also rise again." Cao Shufang said. He hopes to compensate for the loss of production.

The price of agricultural products continued to rise, first in April and May this year, starting from vegetables, followed by mung bean, garlic and other small agricultural products prices soared. Speculation in idle funds is considered to be the main reason for the last round of price increases. In response to this, the state has introduced regulatory policies to try to punish hoarding enterprises and crack down on speculation. Regulatory policies are still being implemented, and prices of staple agricultural products such as rice, corn and wheat have risen.

At the same time, the price of cotton as raw material for textile industry has also surged forward. Wang Aifang, director of the China Cotton Association Information Center, told the reporter that since the autumn of 2009, cotton prices in China have reached a high level in ten years.

Many experts in the industry believe that wheat, cotton and other bulk Agriculture products Price increases, on the one hand, are normal inflation; on the other hand, to a certain extent, it is the result of short-term speculation that the use of tight money in the market.

Prices are at historically high levels.

Cotton prices began to rise as early as the autumn of 2009. According to Wang Aifang analysis, "up to now, cotton prices have risen by 30% compared with the average price of 2008/2009, and the same period has risen to 40%-50%, the highest point in ten years".

In July 6th, the domestic spot price index of China Cotton (CCIndex328) was 18383 yuan / ton, which has risen by nearly 4000 yuan compared with the end of last year.

As the raw material of the textile industry, domestic cotton 95% is used for spinning, cotton from seed cotton, lint to yarn, and finally weaving, printing, dyeing, finished products and export. It has a wide chain of upstream and downstream industries. At present, the price of raw materials is continuously flowing downstream.

Zhao Lanning, manager of Huate Textile Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang, Hebei, pointed out that cotton prices have pushed up the price of cotton yarn, and the price of cotton yarn has increased by about 1/3 compared with that after the Spring Festival.

"In April, the price of yarn went up, and at that time it was stored up, but the cost was too high, and it was only enough for two months." Xiao Li, who runs yarn business in Chongqing, said.

As the cost of raw materials such as cotton and cotton yarn has risen sharply, textile enterprises and garment processing industry as the downstream industry chain are increasingly feeling the pressure of rising costs. The latest research report released by the China Cotton Association shows that the price of raw cotton material continues to rise, and the profits of downstream garment enterprises are reduced. Many weaving enterprises choose to stop working and leave, while clothing companies are more cautious when receiving orders.

" Cotton yarn The price has gone up too far, but the price of cotton cloth is limited. We are worried that if the price falls, the risk will be too great. After the Spring Festival, we will no longer produce cotton cloth and specialize in the relatively stable dacron cloth. Zhao Lanning, manager of Huate Textile Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang, Hebei, said, "only a small number of looms are produced in the factories specializing in cotton cloth, which are used to maintain the source of tourists and the rest to produce other fabrics."

Sales staff of Tianjin foreign trade company, who made cloth exports, revealed that due to rising production costs, exchange rate fluctuations and poor sales, the scale of export textile enterprises has now shrunk, "less than 2007 and 50% of 2008".

Similar to the rise in cotton prices, wheat has changed its normal price before the summer harvest. According to the statistics of China's flour mill, the purchase price of wheat in Shandong's Liaocheng market is 0.96 yuan / Jin, and then the wheat price goes all the way. At present, the farmer's direct selling price is 1 yuan / Jin, and the individual grain trader's purchase price is 1.01 yuan / Jin, and the purchase price of the flour enterprise is 1.02 yuan / Jin.

In Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu and other major wheat producing areas, wheat prices have been rising all the way, and in some areas, even across the province rush to buy wheat. "But even so, buyout companies still can't buy enough wheat, and farmers are generally reluctant to sell." China International Futures Limited Interim Research Institute cotton analyst He Youtao said.

Fried real estate fried cotton?

In the view of Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst in Eastern Edgar, the prices of staple agricultural products such as cotton and wheat have continued to be strong. In the case of tight supply and expected reduction in supply of these products, there has been a lot of manipulating factors for attracting large quantities of social capital into the market.

In general, with the global economic recovery after the financial crisis, China's textile industry has been running smoothly since the first quarter of 2010, with an increase of 13.4% in value and a relatively rapid growth in exports, and the domestic market continued to thrive. The revival of garment and textile industry has led to the demand for cotton.

but cotton The supply has not kept pace. In the financial crisis, the demand for textile and clothing has shrunk sharply, resulting in a decline in demand for cotton and a sharp rise and fall in the cotton market. The average price of cotton in 2008/2009 is only 12159 yuan / ton, the lowest price in recent years, which has severely damaged the enthusiasm of cotton growers. In addition, the increase in agricultural prices and the increase in labor costs have raised the cost of cotton production. In 2009, both cotton planting area and output declined. At the same time, cotton imports accounted for 1/3 of the domestic output in the past, and at the same time, it also dropped significantly. Due to weather factors, the market expects that the new cotton market will be postponed this year and the market short term gap will be larger.

Based on this, the rise in cotton prices can be understood as a result of changes in supply and demand. But according to the information released by the cotton trading network, according to the cotton purchase price in 2009, the cost of cotton should be around 15400 yuan, and it is rare to sell it to more than 18000 yuan and to stay at a high price for four months.

"Within the industry, it is obvious that cotton prices are rising too fast this year." Wang Aifang, director of the information center of the China Cotton Association, pointed out that other industries are raising prices, cotton prices are rising at the latest, and prices are rising so fraty, which may be the "real estate before speculation", which is now turning to cotton.

He Yongtao, a cotton analyst at China International Futures Limited Research Institute, found that although the overall demand is great, the enthusiasm of the traders in the middle reaches larger, while the demand for textile and clothing downstream industries is more stable. Although the price of cotton has gone up, the spot market is rather cold.

He believes that due to higher costs, coupled with the appreciation of the renminbi expected, textile and clothing downstream industries are generally worried about the high price after the fall, too much loss of storage, so tend to use the side of the stock, slowly digest. However, intermediate traders have little risk of changing hands, and do not rule out the possibility of large inventory and hoarding.

Zhao Lanning, the manager of Shijiazhuang Walter Textile Co. Ltd., has always sighed, "if we see the price rise at the beginning of the day, we will buy more at once."