The Reversal Of The Short-Term Spot Market Depends On When The Reserve Price Will Be Allowed.

The answer to this question is not only from the two aspects of supply and demand, but from the perspective of demand, does anyone think that the global economy is improving? Some people think that China's economy has bottomed out and ready to go up? The textile industry has a steady demand in the long run, and the competition is fierce in the medium term, and has entered the off-season in the short term.

So I can't find the foundation of bull market from demand.

Let's look at the supply again. The big aspect is that cotton is one of the highest stock consumption stocks in all commodities, and it has the highest historical range since the cotton statistics. This is certainly because of the State Reserve. After a month's sell-off, the state reserve still has ten million tons of stock.

So why did cotton prices rise sharply in the past two months? This is a very embarrassing thing in the cotton industry. The state is willing to throw it away, but the textile factory is willing to buy it, but the warehouse is reluctant to come out, because there is no warehousing fee when it comes out.

I remember

In Xinjiang, the volume of public inspection can reach eighty thousand tons a day, but twenty thousand tons per day should be ensured (the situation is so wonderful), so the thirty thousand tons per day promised on the storage documents, and the turnover rate is three to 70% tons, which can not be realized.

So that textile enterprises and middlemen can grab cotton reserves and increase their price by more than one thousand yuan, which makes China the most cotton country in theory, and the cost of using cotton is still the highest in the world.

The price of futures is even higher than that of imported cotton at the same level of more than 3000 yuan per month. (Xinjiang's premium delivery has 800-1000 yuan in January).

Can this situation be changed? During the Dragon Boat Festival

A meeting was held in Dezhou to convene a reserve bank. After the meeting, the documents can be found online. It should be said that if the measures are implemented, three to forty thousand tons per day of public inspection can be done, but only half of the new cotton market.

And I believe that the relevant departments will not remain ignorant of this situation.

after all

It is jointly issued by the NDRC and the Ministry of finance, and the number of daily dumping and storage is expressly provided.

The reversal of the short-term spot market depends on how much money can be thrown away.

From the perspective of long-term supply, the only reason why the price of new flowers can be hyped up next year is the weather. But compared to the huge reserve supply, the weather factor can only be a mirror. The reduction of production will only make the national reserve store faster and better. After a month's throw and storage, the quality of the stored cotton is recognized by the spinning and weaving enterprises. There is no problem in the spinning of low quality yarn, and the main force of consumption is low and medium yarn.

From March 1st to August 31st, the dumping will continue until August 31st. The dumping will not be delayed any more. Since the document has been published, how much can the new flower be sold before March 1st? Now any price increase is taking out more reserve cotton from the National Reserve (40% of the reserve quilt middlemen hoarding) and consuming the textile consumption power.

Of course, the technocrat will say that the whole commodity cycle is up, and the money supply is strong, inflation.

Then, please open the one hundred year history chart of New York futures to see how much the currency depreciated over the past one hundred years? Let's see what the price of cotton is one hundred years ago.